"Imaginemos una situación en la que EE.UU. levanta un enorme muro arancelario contra China... Todos estos productos chinos tendrían que desviarse a otros mercados, incluida Europa, por lo que veríamos un gran shock deflacionista en Europa:" George Saravelos de Deutsche Bank:
Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos Sees FX Risks From a ‘Huge Tariff Wall’
Says sweeping tariffs from a Trump presidency would send dollar and euro to parity
Tariff impact
On Surveillance we’ve focused a lot on the ballooning US deficit. But for markets, trade and immigration policy may be more important.
That was the message from several guests today, who see dollar strength and higher benchmark rates resulting from potential new policies.
Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos sees the prospect for significant euro weakness on the heels of proposed US tariffs on China and beyond. His logic: China has a lot of goods to sell, and will likely find a receptive market in Europe. This flood of products will keep prices lower in the euro region, reducing the European Central Bank’s need to keep rates high.
“Going back to this discussion of all the different implications of the US election, the most important one by far from an FX perspective is trade policy,” Saravelos said. While more tariffs on China and elsewhere would have inflationary consequences for the US, “the bigger impact will actually be the disinflationary consequences it would have for the rest of the world.”
This would exacerbate the asymmetry between the Federal Reserve and the ECB, he noted.
“Imagine a situation where the US puts up a huge tariff wall against China,” he said. “All these Chinese goods would have to get diverted into other markets including Europe, so therefore we would see a big deflationary shock in Europe.”
Saravelos sees such tariffs implemented in a more sweeping and rapid fashion if Donald Trump wins the US presidency, leading to parity between the euro and dollar.
Beyond tariffs, immigration policies will be key to inflation, according to Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. If immigration is substantially reduced, inflation will be higher and growth lower, he said.
“On the pure economics, this is taking away the secret sauce that has made the US grow without inflation and with low unemployment for the last couple years,” Posen said. He sees an 80% chance that the Fed will hike rates by the end of the third quarter of 2025 in response to price pressures driven by immigration and tariffs.
Abrazos
PD: El entrenador de la selección de fútbol de España ha impactado con su reciente respuesta a una periodista. Luis de la Fuente Castillo resaltó que hacer la señal de la cruz no es superstición, sino un acto de fe.
Se ha declarado como persona creyente y es meritorio por esto, por no esconder su fe. Así nos va de bien… ¡Vivan los valientes!
