Oil prices are set to stay elevated for longer:
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $100 per barrel in Q2 2026, up from a prior estimate of $80.
This comes as global oil inventories are drawing at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April, driven by 14.5 million barrels per day of lost Persian Gulf production, the LARGEST supply shock in history.
Goldman now assumes Gulf exports will not normalize until the end of June, pushing back its prior estimate of mid-May, with a slower production recovery than previously expected.
In an adverse scenario where Gulf exports only normalize by end of July, Goldman sees Brent averaging just over $100 in Q4 2026.
In a severely adverse scenario involving permanent capacity scarring of 2.5 million barrels per day, Brent could average nearly $120.
With Brent already near $106 the oil market is pricing in a supply crisis that shows no signs of resolving soon.
The longer Hormuz stays closed the higher oil prices will go.
The Iran war is hitting some countries harder than others at the airport:
The United Kingdom is the world's largest net importer of jet fuel at 9.0 million tons in 2025.
This is followed by Australia at 6.4 million tons, Germany at 4.6 million tons, and France at 4.4 million tons, according to Apollo.
These four countries are the most exposed to the surge in jet fuel prices driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has severely disrupted refined product flows out of the Middle East.
By contrast, the Netherlands is the largest net jet fuel exporter at 5.7 million tons, followed by the United States at 4.1 million tons, meaning both countries are direct beneficiaries of elevated jet fuel prices.
This comes as the Iran war has not only disrupted crude oil flows but also refined product supply chains, with jet fuel among the most severely affected commodities given the Middle East's dominant role in global refining.
For heavily import-dependent countries like the UK and Australia, surging jet fuel costs are already feeding through to higher airfares and airline operating costs, adding another layer of inflationary pressure on consumers.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is not just an oil crisis. It is an aviation crisis, too.
Y España liderando el crecimiento por el turismo… A ver como va este año…
Abrazos,
PD: La liturgia:
Muchos no vuelven a misa porque sienten que da igual ir que no ir.
No porque no crean.
No porque no busquen.
Sino porque no encuentran.
1️⃣ ¿Estamos celebrando de tal modo que se transparente la gracia de Dios… o la estamos tapando sin darnos cuenta?
2️⃣ La liturgia no necesita que la hagamos “interesante”.
Necesita que dejemos actuar a Cristo.
3️⃣ A veces confundimos solemnidad con complicación.
Y profundidad con acumulación de cosas.
4️⃣ Cuanto más añadimos de lo nuestro, más riesgo hay de que se vea menos lo esencial.
5️⃣ La liturgia no es un espacio para lucirse, ni para improvisar, ni para “crear experiencias”.
Es acción de Cristo en su Iglesia.
6️⃣ Cuando somos fieles a lo que la Iglesia pide, ocurre algo muy sencillo:
Cristo pasa.
7️⃣ Y la gente lo percibe.
Aunque no sepa explicarlo.
Aunque no tenga formación.
8️⃣ En cambio, cuando todo depende de nosotros, también se nota.
Y entonces… cansa.
9️⃣ La belleza de la liturgia no está en hacer mucho, sino en hacer lo que toca… con fe.
🔟 La gente no vuelve por lo que hacemos.
Vuelve cuando se encuentra con Alguien.
Si en nuestras celebraciones se transparenta Cristo, no hará falta retener a nadie.
Volverán.
