La deuda pública acumulada en EEUU ha pasado de 10 trillones de dólares a 20 trillones de dólares en apenas 7 años…
¿Es esto sostenible en un entorno de subida de tipos de interés? Lo dudo. Lo mismo que en España, que hemos pasado de tener 350.000 millones de euros a 1.150.000 millones de euros en muy poco tiempo…
Ayer la Reserva Federal mostró preocupación por las altas valoraciones y se planteó empezar este año dar marcha atrás y empezar a bajar sus estímulos que tiene parados desde 2015:
La repercusión en las subidas de la bolsa han sido claras. Ahora toca poner la marcha atrás… y restará liquidez al sistema…
Siempre ha habido burbujas, pero ¿y ahora?
Analysts and talking heads have an awful lot of opinions. Are we in a bubble or aren't we? Rather than offer another opinion, I'll offer the relationship of US economic activity (GDP) against the Wilshire 5000 (representing US equities) and the Federal Reserves gauge of American wealth, Z1 Household Net Worth series. These are the preferred establishment gauges, so take a look and then you decide.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced annually in the US. The chart below shows the annual real GDP growth decelerating since 1950.
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, or more simply the Wilshire 5000, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all stocks actively traded in the United States. The chart below shows the Wilshire 5000 vs. the yield on the 10yr US Treasury bond, since 1980.
Interestingly, each top in the equity market saw a "false dawn" or spike in the yield on the 10yr Treasury only to be followed by significantly lower yields on the 10yr.
GDP vs. Equities
The chart below shows the growth in GDP (blue columns), the Wilshire 5000 (red line), and the ratio of the Wilshire to GDP (black line). Since the early 1970's, the US equities market, represented by the Wilshire, has grown more than 5x's faster than American economic growth (GDP).
GDP vs. US Household Net Worth
Given the sharp rise in asset values, I thought it worthwhile to view the total increase, as shown by the Fed's US Household Net Worth data, versus the growth in GDP. The chart below shows US household net worth (all inclusive with real estate, equities, and all asset classes) is fast approaching $92 trillion against US GDP of $18.6 trillion. A simple division of GDP as a % of HHNW (maroon line in the chart below) shows household net worth (asset values) is growing significantly faster than economic activity supporting those valuations.
If you are curious what this looks like over different periods, the chart below suggests the current periods HHNW growth at double the pace of GDP is an aberration.
Finally, from 1950--2000, the average GDP to HHNW ratio was somewhat consistent around 28%...if the HHNW and GDP ratio are to come back to their 50 year norm (before they were warped by long periods of near Zero Interest Rate Policy and actual ZIRP)...there are two basic options:
Either, GDP rapidly rises $7 trillion (a 38% increase)...Or, the other option is a 28% decline in HHNW, or a contraction of $25 trillion. A $25 trillion decline in HHNW would equate to an average $200,000 decline in net worth for every household in America.
Those curious why the financial system has been turned upside down, I think an awful lot of the problems can be explained HERE. The solutions are nowhere so simple. There is no question the federal government will continue to attempt to spend our way out of what is a secular trend of slowing growth HERE, but who will be buying that debt is a very good question HERE.
Y tras la fuerte subida de Wall Street desde 2009, los beneficios empresariales después de impuestos, que es lo que se compra en bolsa, no lo han hecho:
Las empresas se han gastado 2 trillón de dólares en recomprar sus acciones a precios muy altos…:
S&P 500 companies have bought back $500 billion in stock in the last two years, and $2.1 trillion since 2010. Until recently, individual investors have been net sellers for the last eight years. Pension funds have not been net buyers. That means the entire stock market surge has been reliant upon corporations buying their own stock and Wall Street institutions using their HFT machines to rig the system. And this entire scheme has been enabled by the Federal Reserve’s crisis level low interest rates for the last eight years.
Since 2009 over $1 trillion of debt was taken on by S&P 500 companies just to buyback their own stock.
Abrazos,
PD1: Gastan más de lo que ingresan… “No way”
Personal income growth disappointed in December, rising a less-than-expected 0.3% MoM. Of course, that did not stop Americans from spending as personal consumption rose 0.5% MoM in December. This is the 9th month in a row of higher annual spending growth than income growth...
Sadly for all those hyping and hoping for wage growth - it is stagnant again...
Which coupled with the rising inflation means real disposable income growth is its slowest since 2015...
But the need to spend, spend, spend, sends the savings rate tumbling to just 5.4% - the lowest since March 2015.
Sustainable?
PD2: El impulso actual no puede durar más:
El MACD semanal del Dow Jones es el mayor de su historia, con la más fuerte divergencia mensual. Anteriores similares, ¿qué hizo la bolsa? En 1990 -23%, en 1968 -37%, en 1961 -31%...
Periods in which the S&P 500's CAPE Ratio (P/E 10) has been higher than today...
July - Oct 1929
Feb 1997 - Apr 2002
CAPE Ratio:
El Dow Jones:
PD3: Muchas veces nos aferrarnos a aquello que es nuestro, y desesperarnos cuando perdemos cosas materiales. El agricultor se desespera cuando pierde una cosecha incluso cuando la tiene asegurada, o el inversor en bolsa hace lo mismo cuando sus acciones pierden parte de su valor. En cambio, muy pocos se desesperan viendo el hambre o la precariedad de tanta gente, algunos de los cuales viven a nuestro lado.
El Señor siempre puso por delante a las personas, incluso antes que las leyes y los poderosos de su tiempo. Pero nosotros, demasiadas veces, pensamos sólo en nosotros mismos y en aquello que creemos que nos procura felicidad, aunque el dinero nunca la consigue.
