La subida de ciertos países es una burrada sin sentido. Estos son los países cuyo sector inmobiliario ha seguido subiendo, y en varios casos, se mantiene explosivo…:
Si meto a España y Alemania, la cosa sale complicada… Menudas diferencias entre ambos países!!! Qué buen sentido tuvo Alemania que evitó la burbuja entonces, y eso que se incluye la reunificación… España se pasó de lista, mucha subida acumulada desde 1980.
España (morado) se pasó y corrigió. Otros corrigieron y, luego, siguieron subiendo. Alemania (naranja) ni subió antes y ahora lo está haciendo con moderación…
Se puede cambiar la base para ver la evolución… Desde la fecha de mi boda cuando me compré mi primera casa: Se ha revalorizado un 400% y eso que me supuso un gran esfuerzo la compra primera… Este es parte del problema que la gente recuerda este subidón que no se va a repetir… Y eso que son precios medios de España, que ha subido lo mismo en Majadahonda (Madrid) que en una provincia cualquiera…
Mucha subida ha habido… Pobres de mis hijos y de los de su generación, se quedarán sin casa… Y la inflación no ha subido tanto desde entonces.
Desde el inicio de la última crisis:
Varios no se han enterado que los precios no pueden subir para siempre… Si quieres ver los datos, o cambiar países, pulsa aquí: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/03/daily-chart-6?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
Grandes diferencias entre países, sabemos que el inmobiliario es un mercado local que se mueve por motivos locales, fundamentalmente:
The IMF’s Global House Price Index—an average of real house prices across countries—has been rising for the past four years. However, house prices are not rising in every country. As noted in our November 2016 Quarterly Update, house price developments in the countries that make up the index fall into three clusters: gloom, bust and boom, and boom.
The first cluster—gloom—consists of countries in which house prices fell substantially at the onset of the Great Recession, and have remained on a downward path.
The second cluster—bust and boom—consists of countries in which housing markets have rebounded since 2013 after falling sharply during 2007–12.
The third cluster—boom—consists of countries in which the drop in house prices in 2007–12 was quite modest, and was followed by a quick rebound.
This chart shows that house prices varies within a cluster and within a country. Recent IMF assessments provide a more nuanced view of the within-country house price developments.
Abrazos,
PD1: Cogiendo mucha perspectiva, ¿por qué se desmadra todo en los últimos decenios?
Seven Centuries of Real Estate Prices
Global Financial Data has put together a data series covering seven centuries of real estate prices. The series covers real estate costs in Great Britain from 1290 to the current day.
How did we do this? Unfortunately, there was no Ye Olde Zillow Real Estate Co. that had stayed in business for seven centuries and allowed us to analyze their records, but instead we spliced together several long-term series to create this index. The data from 1290 to 1894 is actually based upon the rental costs of housing rather than actual housing prices since rental data was the only information that was available. The data from 1895 to date is based upon actual housing costs using series put together by the Bank of England and the Nationwide Building Society.
A Plague on Your Houses!
The result is illustrated in the graph below. As the logarithmic chart illustrates, housing prices have steadily risen over the past 600 years. The only time when housing prices declined dramatically and hit their nadir was in the 1340s. And why was that? Because the Bubonic Plague decimated the population, reducing it by around one-third. Since there were fewer people, but no decrease in the stock of housing, prices and rents collapsed, falling more than at any time in history, even after 2008.
According to this index, the average house which cost around £200,000 in 2016 (obviously, the index isn’t limited to London), cost about £50 in 1290 and £16 in 1360. There was a general increase in prices during the inflation of the late 1500s and early 1600s when gold and silver from the Americas flooded Europe and the rest of the world, expanding the money supply and raising prices.
A second inflation occurred during the Napoleonic Wars when Britain went off the gold standard, and of course the largest increase in housing prices occurred after World War II when Britain suffered its worst inflation in history.
Before the Bubonic Plague, average wages in England were around 2 per year, but after the plague, in the 1370s, workers earned an average of 4 per year. The survivors lived in the lap of luxury. In the 1290s, it would have taken an average worker 20 years to earn enough to buy a house, but by the 1370s, it only took four years. Now, it would take about 5 years of wages to buy an average home.
The real question, however, is whether housing prices increased more rapidly than inflation in general and by how much. The graph below adjusts British Housing Prices for inflation. The result is quite different. Again, housing prices tumbled as a result of the Bubonic Plague in the 1340s.
After that, however, housing prices remained relatively stable, after adjusting for inflation. In 1940, housing prices were no greater than they had been six hundred years before when the Bubonic Plague had struck. Since then, the story has been different. Housing prices have risen much faster than inflation. In nominal terms, the average house has risen in price from around £500 in 1940 to £200,000 in 2016. Adjusting for inflation, that represents an eight-fold increase in housing prices.
A Wife’s Home Is Her Castle
Although housing prices have not increased as fast as equity prices, housing has still have been a good investment over the past 75 years, and will probably continue to be in years to come. What is true for England is probably true for the rest of the world. Restrictions on increasing the housing supply have contributed to the scarcity of housing in Britain and thus higher prices, but there is no reason to believe that this will change. Unless a wave of zombies spreads a new plague through Britain, housing prices will probably continue to increase faster than inflation for years to come.
PD2: Reino Unido: es el paradigma de la burbuja… Puro endeudamiento:
En Suecia las cosas andan incluso peor a los que están explotando…, con demasiado apalancamiento. No es una burbuja, es lo siguiente…
Australia ha vuelto a subir otro 4,1% en el 4Q2016, y acumula una subida de órdago:
Y EEUU sigue subiendo, con rentabilidades reales del 1,4% durante tantos años (súmale el 3% de inflación). De locos…:
El conjunto de las 10 ciudades mayores, y de las 20 mayores:
¿Se parará o seguirá? Ni lo dudes, todo lo que sube demasiado baja después…
PD3: En España, ahora se hipoteca por mucho menos importe que antes:
Y son muchas menos viviendas las que se hipotecan:
O pagas al contado, o lo llevas clarinete…
Este es el volumen de nuevo crédito concedido en España en los últimos años:
Como puedes ver, de nuevo subida fuerte del crédito al consumo. No aprendemos, qué memos somos!!! Volvemos a repetir los errores anteriores… Y sí, los bancos son los culpables por dar tanto crédito. Aunque el saldo deudor de las tarjetas de crédito no creo que sea para apalancarse dado los altos intereses que cobran, ¿o sí?
Junto a la rica Noruega, somos los que más casas tenemos en propiedad:
Todos los del Sur juntitos: España, Grecia, Portugal e Italia… Demasiada diferencia con Alemania, que encima no se ha enterado, no ha sufrido, la fuerte subida de las casas desde 1980.
PD4: No podemos olvidarnos de un severo problema que atenaza al sector en España: la no legislación para los OKUPAS con niños… Meten más que miedo, pavor, y desanima a muchos inversores, que dudan de la seguridad de invertir en pisos y que sean okupados!!! Es un drama tener una segunda vivienda y que te la okupen, o no te pague el inquilino… No sé que es peor.
PD5: Amar es querer el bien del otro y en esto se basa nuestra realización personal. No amamos para buscar nuestro bien, sino por el bien del amado, y haciéndolo así crecemos como personas. El ser humano, afirmó el Concilio Vaticano II, «no puede encontrar su plenitud si no es en la entrega sincera de sí mismo a los demás». En eso estoy o, al menos, lo intento…
