1. The US unveils big reciprocal tariffs
2. However, markets show barely any reaction
3. They've been burned by past tariff back and forth
4. Skepticism is high these tariffs will stick
5. Only winner tomorrow is China
6. China flies under the radar
There's an interesting disconnect between the Dollar (lhs) and S&P 500 (rhs). The Dollar is flat since Nov. 5, which signals no tariffs, while S&P 500 is down over 4%, which signals mounting fear of tariffs. My guess is that the Dollar will catch up here. Dollar strength ahead...
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
Abrazos,
PD: Hace 20 años, el 2 de abril de 2005, fallecía San Juan Pablo II.
Durante su pontificado, hizo un llamamiento a todos los católicos para que abramos de par en par las puertas de nuestro corazón a Cristo.
San Juan Pablo II, ruega por nosotros.
