No se ve una recesión
inminente, pero las dudas siguen ahí. Ayer Wall Street volvió a marcar máximos,
con un mercado de bonos a la baja en precio, subida de rentabilidades y un
dólar a la baja. Una cosa es el corto plazo, y otra lo que se puede esperar a
dos años vista. Interesante:
The
next recession: What are the warning signs? What
might it look like? How will markets react?
The nearly decade-long U.S. economic
expansion may look a little long in the tooth, but it is not about to end due
to old age. Economic expansions need a catalyst that triggers a downward spiral
of consumer and business retrenchment. The most common recession catalyst for
the United States has been the
collision of rising interest rates with heavy debt loads, corporate valuations
that appear to have run ahead of free-cash-flow generation, or both. Add
trade tensions and geo-political uncertainties, which may work to slow global
growth, and it seems like the current situation has the potential to trigger a
recession.
While the current environment ticks off
all the items on this list, that does not mean a recession is in the cards.
Indeed, equity markets have been placid thus far in 2018. After a brief
volatility spike in January, implied volatility has subsided to near record
lows for equities, many related financial products and precious metals. So far, neither markets nor U.S.
macroeconomic data for labor markets or consumer confidence are flashing any
signs of concern.
Our focus in this report is three-fold.
First, we want to examine the recession
risk signals and evaluate the probabilities of a downturn coming in the next
year or two. Our conclusion is that recession
risks are steadily rising and there is now a greater than a 33% probability of
a recession coming in the next 12-24 months.
Second, based on our understanding of
possible catalysts, we will
look at the likely character of the next recession. In this
regard, the next recession is unlikely to look anything like the last one with
its financial panic, mortgage crisis and failing banks. The next time around,
there might be parallels with the late 1990s when rising rates, emerging market
currency disruption, and over-stretched corporate valuations led to a set of
feedback loops that upended consumer confidence and resulted in sharp pullbacks
in business spending.
Finally, we will review how markets might
react –
equity correction, bond rally despite debt loads, commodity weakness, and
possibly a shift to a weak-dollar environment.
THREE CRITICAL WARNING SIGNS ON THE HORIZON
1) YIELD CURVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been raising
rates in its desire to shift gears, from accommodative to neutral. Given that the Fed is signaling more
rate hikes to come, there is a real risk of unintentionally shifting into a
high tightening gear.
The metric most clearly signaling that the
Fed may go beyond neutral and into the high tightening gears is the shape of
the yield curve. As
the Fed has lifted short-term rates, longer-term Treasury bond yields have
hardly moved, resulting in a major flattening of the yield curve. Economic
theory argues that a neutral monetary policy is associated with a modestly
positive yield curve. The logic for a slightly positive neutral curve is that
short-term rates have less inflation risk than longer-term yields, so risk
premiums rise with maturities. As short-term rates rise relative to long-term
yields, financial institutions can no longer earn profits from borrowing short
and lending long. Commercial businesses depending on short-term credit will
face higher interest payments. Consumer debt is not particularly interest-rate
sensitive, but home mortgages are. Rising short-term rates make floating-rate
mortgages less attractive, reducing mortgage choices and decreasing the
affordability of buying a new home. All of these impacts are exacerbated if the
yield curve actually inverts – short-term rates higher than long-term
yields. And,
inverted yield curves are an especially good indicator of future recessions 12
to 24 months down the road.
Figure 1: More Rate Hikes Risk Taking the
Fed Past Neutral.
And, oh by the way, it does not matter why the
yield curve flattened or inverted, it only matters that the shape is no longer
positively sloped. The cause of the yield curve’s shape
change does not matter because economic agents – governments, businesses,
consumers – face the change in interest costs and have to react no matter the
reason. Aside from the Fed pushing short-term rates higher, this time around,
one reason the yield curve has flattened has been that long-term yields did not
shift upward with the Fed rate hikes. Long-term yields were constrained due to
competition from low yields in government bond markets in Europe and Japan,
helped by their central banks’ asset-purchase policies. This is certainly true,
but just because the cause was different does not mean the outcome will be too.
Then, there is debt. Debt levels have been rising in the
U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, although not
in Europe. Rising debt does not mean an impending recession. Indeed, moderate
increases in debt fuel sustained economic expansions. The issue is that higher
debt loads mean higher interest payments when interest rates do rise. So, as debt loads increase, the
fragility of an economy to rising interest rates increases.Talking
just about the U.S., the biggest increases in debt are coming from the Federal
government, which means that as interest rates rise the interest expense item
in the government budget is going to grow quite rapidly. Consumer and housing
debt was way too high in 2007-2008. Consumers cut back for a while but have now
returned to the debt loads of 2008. We
expect slowdowns in both U.S. auto and home sales due in no small part to
rising interest rates hitting high debt loads.
2) EMERGING MARKET FX DISRUPTIONS
Plunging emerging market currencies should
not come as too much of a surprise. Emerging market currencies often have
problems following the Fed’s tightening. Most famously, Latin America was plunged into a
deep, decades-long economic depression following former Fed Chair Paul
Volcker’s massive rate hikes between 1979 and 1981. Following the Fed’s 1994
rate hikes, the Mexican peso wasted no time in collapsing and was followed a
few years later by the Thai baht, many other Asian currencies, and then the Russian
ruble. Currency
disruptions in emerging market countries are growth killers.Existing
borrowings in US dollars or other hard currencies become extremely hard to
service. Domestic businesses and consumers pull back spending in a downward
spiral. Political uncertainties, often already high, get even more convoluted
as emergency policies are enacted and interest rates go sky high. As emerging market countries have
taken an increasingly larger share of global economic activity over the last
few decades, their impact on global growth and the knock-on effects to the
major industrial countries has increased.
Figure 2: Is the Next Emerging Market FX
Crisis Underway?
Between 2009 and 2016, investors grew
accustomed to financing long positions in emerging market currencies with
interest-free loans in the U.S., European, Japanese or other zero-rate
currencies. Now
that the Fed has hiked repeatedly and plans to increase rates even more, these
currency-carry trades are unwinding in a hurry.
Moreover, high debt levels exacerbate
emerging market stress. China has taken on extremely high levels of debt that
resembles those of developed nations (Figure 3) and is currently trying to
deleverage. The problem for China is that its deleveraging plan is not a
deleveraging plan at all. Basically,
China’s so-called deleveraging plan moves debt from point A (the shadow banking
system, non-financial corporations and local governments) to point B (the
official banking system, the central government and, indirectly, household
balance sheets). Moving debt from one place to another doesn’t achieve
deleveraging but it can make debt more manageable. The
Chinese government is trying to stave off an economic slowdown with an upcoming
tax cut, scheduled for September 2018, while the People’s Bank of China is
reducing its reserve requirement ratio to spur lending. Given China’s debt
burdens and the cost of the trade war with the United States, it seems unlikely
that these measures can ward off slower growth. Finally, China’s debt levels
may be understated by as much as 10-20% of GDP once local government debt is
accounted for.
A clear consequence of economic disruption
and slowing growth in emerging market countries is the plunging prices for industrial
metals. Copper prices fell by almost 20% in June and July
2018. Oil demand has held up so far, but downward pressure on prices is typical
in an emerging market currency disruption period.
3) TRADE WAR
Trade wars were a big deal back in the
1700s and early 1800s. The
Mercantilists argued for tariffs to protect the local economy, but free traders
eventually won the economic theory and practical arguments of the day. Trade
issues got a lot of attention during the Great Depression of the 1930s, too.
The US enactment of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs was widely believed to have made a
major contribution to deepening the global depression. We would put much more
of the blame on the Fed for not serving its duty as a lender of last resort,
however, so we do not think the Great Depression has much to say about the
current trade war, and if it says anything it gives a misleading impression
that the current trade war guarantees a recession.
Our much more modest take on the current
U.S.-initiated trade war is that it has two effects that raise recession risks.
First, the trade war disrupts business
planning and potentially raises costs related to supply chain management, and
in so doing, decreases corporate profits overall (although a few specific
companies will benefit).
Second, the trade war hurts the Chinese
economy and exacerbates the slowdown in growth.
If the trade war occurred in isolation and
not at a time of rising U.S. rates and emerging market FX disruptions, we would
be less pessimistic. And
while economists like to analyze issues by assuming all things are equal or
stay the same (i.e., ceteris paribus), the reality is that the trade war is
coming at a very bad time. The U.S. economy may look quite healthy in the rear-view
mirror, appearing more than able to withstand some trade challenges. However,
with risks of recession already rising from rate hikes and emerging market FX
disruptions, the next bump on the road could prove critical. And, the trade war
may simply be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
We are already worried about China’s
slowing growth, its debt load, and the overall situation in emerging markets.
The key takeaway from our perspective is that while the trade war may hit China
much harder economically than the United States, the politics in China argues
against quick concessions. China’s long-term objective is
to regain its place as one of the most powerful and influential countries in
the world. Compromise with the U.S. is possible but Chinese leaders are going
to try to show they stood up to America and negotiated a mutually beneficial
deal, not an unfavorable lopsided one. Trade war tensions between the US and China may well
last into the 2020s.
Now let’s look at corporate profits, which
are likely to come under downward pressure. Falling corporate profits do not
necessarily doom the equity bull market, at least in the short run. The
previous two bull markets went through two phases. In the first phase
(1990-1997 and 2003-2005), earnings and equity prices rose together. In the
second phase (1997-2000 and 2006-2007), earnings fell but equity prices rose
anyway (Figure 4). Earnings
essentially have plateaued since 2014, before being goosed up by the corporate
tax cut. With the tax cut impact fully priced into the
market, earnings may begin to decline in the second half of 2018. Even so, the
actual peak in the equity market might not come until 2019, 2020 or later,
depending on whether a recession materializes.
Figure 4: Investors Might Not Care if Earnings
Decline… At Least for a Year or Two.
In addition to
falling earnings and rising prices, late-stage equity bull markets usually
exhibit three other features: 1) rising volatility, 2) widening credit spreads
and 3) a narrowing of the number of stocks leading the rally. During the 1990s bull market, credit
spreads achieved their narrowest point in 1997, right around the peak in
earnings, but stocks didn’t peak until March 2000. During the 2003-2007 bull
market, credit spreads got to their narrowest point in May 2007, five months
before the peak in the equity market. Widening credit spreads may cut off the
flow of share buybacks to companies that use debt. Their stocks may
underperform.
Stock market corrections are not good
predictors of recessions, as there are many more corrections than recessions.
Nevertheless, a stock market correction in the context of rising rates,
emerging market FX turmoil, and a trade war would probably strike fear into the
hearts of corporate leaders and result in substantial reductions in planned
investment, tilting the odds toward a recession.
WHAT WILL THE NEXT RECESSION LOOK LIKE?
The next recession probably will not look
much like the most recent one. This time there is no subprime mortgage problem.
US banks are quite well capitalized. Most US housing markets are not at extreme
valuations. European banks still have some issues but with European Central
Bank (ECB) rates at zero, the likelihood of bank failures is low. Moreover,
unlike the US and China, Europe has entered into an impressive phase of
deleveraging. The next recession is more likely to see general business and
consumer pullbacks that feed on each other, rather than the financial panic of
2008.
In this regard, the next recession may
resemble the succession of problems that rocked global financial markets
between 1997 and 2003 that began as an emerging market currency crisis and
ended as a tech wreck. With soaring tech shares and a slowdown in China, it is
easy to imagine the next downturn as a distant echo of the 1997-98 Asian and
Russian crises, followed by the 2001-like bear market in tech stocks. In fact,
emerging market currency turbulence is already with us. (Figure 2).
Figure 5: Deficits are Rising During the
Current Expansion Even as Growth Continues.
A key casualty of
the next recession could be the US budget deficit. If you think that debt
issuance is big today, just wait until a recession begins, tax revenues shrivel
and pressure builds for more countercyclical spending. The 1990-91 recession expanded the
deficit by 3% of GDP. The combination of the tech wreck recession and the 2001
tax cuts ballooned the deficit by 6% of GDP between 2001 and 2003. The 2008
recession expanded the deficit by 9% of GDP. If we have another recession in the
next year or two, we could easily be looking at annual US Federal budget
deficits of 8-12% of GDP.
MARKET REACTIONS IF A RECESSION WERE TO OCCUR
EQUITIES
While not necessarily a predictor as
discussed earlier, a recession will almost certainly be accompanied by a sharp drop
in equity prices. Indeed, they will keep dropping until policy changes, such as
sharp rate reductions, improve the economic outlook.
BONDS
The bond market reaction is less obvious.
Why wouldn’t 8-12% of GDP Federal budget deficits be a catastrophe for the bond
market? Would yields soar? The answer to these questions is, probably not. Bond
yields plunged during the past three recessions even as deficits expanded. The
same could happen again. The irony of rising debt levels is that they tend to
lower interest rates for the simple reason that high debt burdens can only be
sustained with easy money.
HIGH YIELD DEBT
The combination of rising rates and a
stock market correction will not be good news for low credit quality debt. For
the moment, U.S. domestic credit spreads remain tight. High-yield bonds yield
just 3.5% more than Treasuries and investment grade bonds, trading at tight
spreads to government debt. Long-term interest rates remain low and largely
unmoved by the Fed hikes. Cheap long-term financing is fueling a corporate
borrowing binge whose proceeds are being used, in part, to buy back shares,
supporting the nine-and-a-half-year bull market in equities that has rallied
the S&P 500® by more than 300% and the NASDAQ 100 by over 600%. Equity
valuations have not been this high since 2000 and may continue to go higher.
THE FED
Once volatility shifts to a higher state,
credit spreads widen and unemployment begins to rise, the Fed will likely
respond as it has in the past: by lowering rates and steepening the yield curve
in a bid to calm markets and generate an economic recovery. Even if short-term
US interest rates go 50 basis points (bps) higher over the next 6-9 months and
maybe higher still, it is quite possible that the Fed will have its policy rate
back at 1% or even 0% before 2022 if there is a recession.
PRIMARY METALS
Primary metals might not care much about the
fate of tech stocks but what happens in emerging markets is of great
importance. As such, if China stumbles and if we experience a generalized
emerging market crisis, watch for commodity prices to plunge and retest their
2016 lows. The most vulnerable commodities are industrial metals, which are the
canary in the coal mine for changes in China’s growth rate. Their prices have
already fallen sharply.
AGRICULTURE
Agricultural goods prices follow the fate
of certain emerging market currencies closely, especially those of big
producers like Brazil and Russia. China also exerts an extremely strong
influence on these prices, if an indirect one. If China slows, the prices of
metals and often energy decline with it. In turn, this negatively impacts the
currencies of Canada, Russia, Brazil and other food exporters, making their
farmers more competitive with respect to their US counterparts. This in turn
may lower the global cost of production for agricultural goods which in turn
may lower the floor to which the prices of corn, soy and wheat can fall when
seen for a US dollar perspective.
ENERGY PRICES ARE THE WILD CARD
The Asian crisis was toxic for oil prices.
The price of oil was battered during the 1997-1999 period, falling from $25 to
$12 per barrel. If emerging markets slow, the economic risks for oil will be to
the downside. That said, political risks (both for conflict between and within
oil producing nations) remain to the upside. So, there is no guarantee that oil
prices will actually fall in response to a slowdown in emerging markets if
there is a problem on the supply side.
WHAT ABOUT THE U.S. DOLLAR?
At the moment, the dollar is caught in a
tug of war. Rising US interest rates and problematic risks abroad are pushing
the dollar higher. A deteriorating US fiscal situation is serving as a
counterweight. For the moment, the forces sending the dollar higher appear to
have the upper hand. So long as investors remain convinced that higher US rates
are in store and so long as other central banks fail to keep pace, the US
dollar might work its way higher.
Once the US expansion ends, however, watch
out. The Fed will shift from tightening to neutral and then, when faced with no
other choice, to easing. The already sizeable Federal budget deficits currently
preventing the dollar from soaring will explode. The monetary and fiscal forces
that are currently opposing one another will align and the dollar could crash.
The combination of the Fed cutting rates and exploding deficits could also
prove extremely bullish for gold and silver. That said, precious metals might
not evidence much upside until the Fed eases back on its rate hikes.
OPTIONS MARKETS
The outlook is for calm now, then a sudden
evolution to a higher state of volatility. Over the past six months we have
published a number of papers documenting the cyclical relationship between
monetary policy and implied volatility on all sorts of options (FX, gold,
equity, interest rate and credit spreads). We include credit spreads since
corporate bonds are essentially a short put option on the value of a
corporation.
Periods of easy monetary policy typically
reduce implied volatility on options to low levels. Tightening cycles have
little impact on low volatility markets in the short term. As the central bank
continues to tighten and eventually overtightens, however, volatility (and
credit spreads) will eventually explode. Historically, the average lag time
between a move by the central bank and a reaction by the options markets is
probably around a year and half (give or take six months).
The fact that options markets haven’t
shown much reaction to the Fed’s sequence of rate hikes to-date is hardly a
surprise. In fact, it would have surprised us if market volatility had reacted
quickly to the Fed tightening. That said, we think that there is a substantial
risk that the Fed’s tightening cycle results in much higher levels of
volatility around 2020, give or take a year. The average level of implied
volatility on equity index, FX, gold and fixed income options could easily
double from current levels. Credit spreads could easily widen three times (or
more) than where they are currently trading. Markets may be without high
volatility today but nothing lasts forever when causal factors are in play.
BOTTOM LINE
+Recession risks are rising above 33% due
to Fed rate rises, emerging market FX disruption and the US-China trade war.
+The next recession will not look like the
2008 financial panic, but more like the one in 1997-2002.
+Market reactions may include an equity
correction, high yield bond sell-off, and falling Treasury yields.
+A continued crash in emerging market
currencies could derail commodities.
+The US dollar could remain strong so long
as the Fed continues hiking rates, but the US dollar could go into a bearish
cycle if a recession causes the Fed to lower rates abruptly.
+Gold and silver might suffer in the short
term but a dollar crash would be hugely bullish.
Abrazos,
PD1: Con respecto a leer el
evangelio todos los días, hay que hacerlo no con el afán de conocer la
historia, sino leyendo un rato corto cada día, meditando las palabras,
metiéndonos en ese momento, que Dios nos habla a nosotros ahora, no a esos
judíos de entonces… Hemos de dejar que la Palabra de Dios llegue a nuestro
corazón y nos convierta, dejar cambiarnos, transformarnos con su fuerza. Pero
para eso hemos de pedir el don de la humildad. Solamente el humilde puede aceptar a Dios.
