Tradicionalmente, cuando los rendimientos de los bonos suben, también lo hace el dólar. Esto se debe a que:
- Rendimientos más altos suelen reflejar una economía fuerte.
- Eso atrae capital extranjero, lo que refuerza el dólar.
Pero ahora, eso ya no está ocurriendo:
- Desde que Trump anunció nuevos aranceles en abril (“liberation day tariffs”), el rendimiento del bono a 10 años ha subido del 4,16% al 4,42%,
- Mientras que el dólar ha caído un 4,7% frente a una cesta de divisas.
Hay preocupaciones sobre el déficit público, el aumento de la deuda de EE. UU., y la falta de claridad en la política económica de Trump.
El mercado no está interpretando los rendimientos altos como una señal de fortaleza económica, sino como un riesgo fiscal.
Because yields reflect the decline of U.S. dominance—not tariffs or inflation.
And the Court’s move will only accelerate the end of this institutional cycle.
What many saw as selective protectionism by the Trump administration has rapidly escalated into a broader macroeconomic crisis, prompting, in my view, willingly so, unprecedented alignment between fiscal and monetary interventions.
By viewing these shifts in plain terms – as a new “operating system” for American power – we can start to make sense of the chaos. The shift is structural, not personal; it’s driven by necessity, not whim.
One can think of it as America moving from “open by default” to “secure by design.” Policies that once prioritized global markets and alliances are giving way to an approach that unapologetically puts domestic stability and strategic autonomy first.
An update, building on The Bigger Picture Behind Tariffs, Debt, and America’s New Economic Doctrine:
The real U.S.–China trade war isn’t about tariffs—it’s about saving capitalism from itself. China’s state-driven model flooded the world with subsidized overcapacity, warping markets and weakening real competition. Now, the U.S. is fighting not just to protect its industries, but to detox global capitalism from its subsidy addiction. The IMF is shifting, Europe is reacting, and a new “secure by design” operating system is emerging. This isn’t deglobalization—it’s recalibration. Capitalism is being rebooted, and fairer, more resilient rules may finally replace the race to the bottom.
Abrazos,
PD: Reza como si todo dependiera de Dios. Trabaja como si todo dependiera de ti.. Este video merece mucho la pena: https://x.com/UniCatolicos_es/status/1929308200563581102
