Tres bloques, con muy distintas actuaciones. ¿Se mantendrá este equilibrio de fuerzas mucho tiempo más? Lo dudo, dado que tanto la UE como EEUU andan con mucha deuda pública acumulada… Y los chinos saben que su objetivo es seguir creciendo en todos los frentes…
President Trump has so far been softer on China than his campaign promises predicted. This is welcome. However, the EU has a lot at stake, and should be ready to steer a tactical course between its two main trade partners.
60% of global GDP;
50% of global GDP measured in purchasing power parities;
45% of global trade (excluding intra-EU trade).
-The EU is the 2 destination of exports from both China and the US;
-The EU is the 1 origin of imports to China and the 2 to the US;
-The US is the 1 destination of exports from both China and the EU;
-The US is the 2 origin of imports to the EU and the 3 to China;
-China is the 2 destination of exports from the EU and the 4 from the US;
-China is the 1 origin of imports to both the EU and the US.
Bilateral trade balances (exports minus imports) are expressed as a percentage of total bilateral trade flows (exports plus imports).
-China ran a 30% surplus with the EU and a 60% surplus with the US;
-The EU ran a 30% deficit with China and a 20% surplus with the US;
-The US ran a 20% deficit with the EU and a 60% deficit China.
1-The EU should remind the Trump administration that the United States has played a pivotal role in the functioning of the rules-based multilateral trading system since the creation of the GATT in 1947. It should also convey the message that the system has served well the interests of the US and its trading partners. Finally, the EU and the US should examine the possibility of relaunching the TTIP negotiations.
2-The EU should also remind China that it has benefitted a lot from its accession to the WTO in 2001. Moreover, the EU should try and convince the Chinese authorities that the time has come for China to assume its full responsibility in the strengthening of the multilateral trading system. This implies less involvement of the state in trade and investment activities. In parallel the EU and China should commit to reach an agreement on a bilateral investment treaty by 2020.
3-The EU should take an initiative – together with the United States, China and other G20 nations – to modernise the rules of the multilateral trading system. They should ask the director-general of the WTO to appoint an Eminent Persons Group tasked to make recommendations on the global trade regime and on the design of a reformed WTO.
4-The EU should seriously reflect on the desirability and feasibility of introducing a European Committee on Foreign Investment modelled after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which reviews the national security implications of foreign investments in US companies or operations. Such a body would give the EU greater leverage vis-à-vis China (and other countries) in negotiations on foreign investment.
5-Finally, the EU should make good the commitment of EU leaders in the Rome Declaration to strengthen Europe’s common security and defence “in cooperation and complementarity with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation”. This would give the EU greater leverage vis-à-vis the United States within NATO.
PD1: Los hijos no necesitan un super-padre o una super-madre, sino un padre y una madre que se quieran mucho. Esto lo dijo el Obispo Munilla y cuánta razón tiene… Nos obsesionamos con satisfacer todas las necesidades a los hijos, tantas veces son un quebradero de cabeza para muchos… Cuando es tan simple que les mostremos nuestro amor como padres, entre nosotros, que no andemos presumiendo de nada, que no andemos sermoneándoles por todo. Que les mostremos lo mucho que nos queremos como pareja, padres de ellos. Ya aprenderán a copiarnos. Este es el mejor ejemplo de todos los que queramos enseñarles…