Chinese activity data for March were generally below expectations, but remain strong for the quarter, as illustrated by Q1 GDP, up 5.3% y/y and 7.2% q/q ann. with our own seasonal adjustment
Growth continues to be driven primarily by consumer spending. Although retail sales volumes slowed in March to 2.9% y/y due to an unfavorable base effect, they rose over the quarter to over 9% y/y, above the 6-year pre-pandemic average
Total consumer spending, including services, rebounded even more strongly over the quarter (13.5% ann.) and is now only 2% below its pre-pandemic trend, compared with 12% for retail sales
Consumption grew at a faster pace than disposable income, with households reducing their savings rate somewhat over the quarter (still spectacular at over 30%), thereby reducing the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic to 5.1% of income
The savings accumulated since the pandemic (over RMB 70tn) are still largely held in bank deposits (nearly 60tn), as consumers still seem wary of returning to the financial or real estate markets
Real investment spending has made a positive contribution to growth since the last quarter of last year, thanks to infrastructure and manufacturing investment offsetting a still significant contraction in the real estate sector
Y su bolsa, que ha despertado tiene un largo potencial alcista…
Abrazos,
PD: “Nada puede pasarme que Dios no quiera y todo lo que Él quiere, por muy malo que me parezca, es en realidad lo mejor”. Santo Tomás Moro
Muchas veces no entendemos lo que nos pasa, cuando estamos enfermos o cuando se nos muere un familiar. La vida es dura y nos da palos. Todo lo entenderemos cuando veamos a Dios. Y sabremos esto que intuimos: todo lo que nos pasa es porque Dios lo quiere, porque es lo mejor para nosotros…
