Alemania ha aprobado cambiar su estrategia de poca deuda pública en relación al PIB:
Have we just witnessed the end of an era?
German lawmakers just passed what may well be the biggest spending package in history.
Germany, with its constitutional debt brake, is one of very few major economies, that has a #debt-to-GDP ratio close to the 60% of the Maastricht Treaty.
Will this be the trigger that puts Germany on the path of France and Italy?
Did Germany just prove the world has indeed become a debt-driven system?
I guess it did...
Moody's warns that Germany’s decision to relax its debt rules will lead to rising debt levels in the medium term, instead of the previously expected decline. While the extra spending is meant to boost the economy, its impact on growth will be minimal—only adding 0.1ppts. This is because much of the money is going toward defense, which has a low economic multiplier effect.
Economists are raising their growth forecasts following the massive debt package. Goldman upped 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.2%, JPM by 0.5ppts to 0.4% and GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5ppts to 1.5% (GS), 1.1ppts to 1.5% (JPM).
But it’s likely to be a short-lived boost—more of a sugar high than a lasting effect. The reason? The package includes no structural reforms. Potential growth—the economy’s long-term growth capacity based on labor force, working hours, productivity, and capital investment—remains unchanged at 0.6-0.7%.
Abrazos,
PD: Hoy San José. En casa le tenemos una especial afición. Es una figura genial, dócil, enamorado de la Virgen, y presto a actuar: se fue corriendo a Egipto sin dudarlo. La cantidad de cosas que le tocó vivir; el portal de Belén, perder al Niño Jesús tres días…. ¿Las guardaría en su corazón como María? No debía entender casi nada de lo que le fue pasando, pero no abrió la boca, más que para enseñar durante 30 años al Señor como buen padre que fue. El arcángel le tuvo que soplar al oído varias veces…
Esa labor de los hombres, de los padres en las familias que marcan la serenidad de los hogares. Ese gran trabajo es la que hacemos los hombres hoy como lo hizo entonces San José.
