Entre los miedos a que esto siga subiendo y se lo pierda uno, y los miedos a que esto se haya pasado ya, es interesante ver los datos:
+ Long-term average stock returns smooth over the bull and bear markets that investors experience, and no two market cycles ever unfold the exact same way. Bull and bear markets can vary significantly in both duration and magnitude.
+ But there are other characteristics of bull markets that can also differ in meaningful ways, such as velocity, sources of return, and investor experience.
+ When it comes to analyzing bull markets, inflation, interest rates, equity valuations, earnings, and dividends all play a part.
+ Assessing the current economic environment in the context of historical U.S. and international bull markets can help set better expectations and reduce the risk of surprises that can lead to emotional decisions.
: How fast do bull and bear markets unfold?
: How much of bull market returns are composed of inflation? Dividend yield? Earnings growth? Valuation changes?
: What was the experience of an investor using a balanced 50/50 asset allocation during these bull and bear markets?
: How does the experience of bull and bear markets in the U.S. compare to other markets around the world?
+ “Valuation Normalization”: Valuations increasing from historically low levels to the long-term median.
+ “Valuation Expansion”: Valuations increasing from the long-term median to higher levels.
1-August 1921 to September 1929 (66%)
2-March 2009 to December 2016 (55%)
3-December 1987 to August 2000 (38%)
4-February 2003 to October 2007 (36%)
5-June 1962 to December 1968 (30%)
1-February 2003 to October 2007 (36%)
2-December 1987 to August 2000 (30%)
3-June 1962 to December 1968 (30%)
4-August 1921 to September 1929 (27%)
5-March 2009 to December 2016 (25%)
PD1: Y en Bloomberg dicen que nos vayamos preparando…
Every day since President Donald Trump took office seems to bring a new political shock, so you might be surprised to learn that the stock market is just shy of all-time highs.
PD2: La vida es demasiado corta como para que te importe lo que digan los demás de ti: sé feliz y que digan lo que quieran…
Ante la brutalidad de nuestra sociedad de ir juzgando al prójimo por todo, la amabilidad de quererle por como son, al margen de lo que hagan o dejen de hacer, de cómo vistan, de sus pensamientos, de sus creencias…
En el apostolado, en contarle a los demás que hay que amar, no debemos tener prejuicios mentales del qué dirán de uno…