Todos estos recortes empezaron por dudas en la inflación, porque las expectativas inflacionistas habían subido, porque el petróleo estaba rompiendo los 70 dólares por barril:
Cuando la realidad es que la inflación subyacente (core), sigue bastante tranquilita:
Some commentators have attributed the recent market sell-off and spikes in volatility to the risk of a return of inflation
The narrative has been that central banks will begin to tighten policy faster than was previously anticipated in order to control inflation, therefore hampering the rally in stocks. However, this week’s chart shows that across the major world economies, core inflation is still relatively subdued. At this stage, there is simply not enough compelling evidence to suggest that inflation is roaring back. Whilst we do expect that central banks will ease off the accelerator, this will be gradual and broadly in line with their forward guidance, therefore central bank policy should remain supportive of risk assets over the coming year.
Nowotny, miembro del BCE dijo:
On Sunday, Austrian central bank Governor and ECB member, Ewald Nowotny - in the most direct warning to liquidity addicts and market bulls yet - said "the recent drop in equities is a normalization, a reasonable wake-up signal to show that stock markets can’t just keep rising all the time,” speaking on Austrian television.
"Behind [the drop] there is an expectation in markets that central banks will increasingly raise interest rates, and there are certain good reasons for that. The U.S. is expanding. However, one has to say that the task of central banks isn’t to satisfy markets but to ensure overall economic stability. So if necessary, interest rates will have to rise and markets will adapt to that."
If the last week is any indication, the markets' adaptation to rising interest rates will be very painful indeed.
Causing further indigestion among the bulls, Nowotny also said that Euro-area inflation still has room to move higher "so the ECB is still on the careful side. But that certainly won’t last forever. In the foreseeable future there will be a need for the ECB to raise interest rates, as is currently being done in the U.S."
As for the ECB's QE, the Austrian said that the asset-purchase program will continue until September “and then we will discuss whether or not to end it. I make no secret of the fact that I don’t think we will need it, at least not in its current form. And only after we have ended it will the question of interest rates come into play”
Abrazos,
PD1: Hemos aceptado cosas normales que no lo eran:
How can central banks "retrain" participants while maintaining their extreme policies of stimulus?
Human habituate very easily to new circumstances, even extreme ones. What we accept as "normal" now may have been considered bizarre, extreme or unstable a few short years ago.
Three economic examples come to mind:
1. Near-zero interest rates. If someone had announced to a room of economists and financial journalists in 2006 that interest rates would be near-zero for the foreseeable future, few would have considered it possible or healthy. Yet now the Federal Reserve and other central banks have kept interest rates/bond yields near-zero for almost nine years.
The Fed has raised rates a mere .75% in three cautious baby-steps, clearly fearful of collapsing the "recovery."
What would happen if mortgages returned to their previously "normal" level around 7% from the current 4%? What would happen to auto sales if people with average credit had to pay more than 0% or 1% for a auto loan?
Those in charge of setting rates and yields are clearly fearful that "normalized" interest rates would kill the recovery and the stock bubble.
2. Massive money-creation hasn't generated inflation. In classic economics, massive money-printing (injecting trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros into the financial system) would be expected to spark inflation.
As many of us have observed, "official" inflation of less than 2% does not align with "real-world" inflation in big-ticket items such as rent, healthcare and college tuition/fees. A more realistic inflation rate is 7%-8% annually, especially in the higher-cost regions of the US.
But setting that aside, there is a puzzling asymmetry between low official inflation and the unprecedented expansion of money supply, debt and monetary stimulus (credit and liquidity). To date, most of this new money appears to be inflating assets rather than the real world. But can this asymmetry continue for another 9 years?
3. Stock markets are soaring but sales and profits are stagnant. Everyone knows central banks are still pumping billions of dollars per month into the financial system, and this (coupled with central bank purchases of stocks and bonds) has been pushing stocks sharply higher for the past 9 years, with only a few hiccups along the way.
This is pushing valuations out of alignment with traditional metrics of valuing assets such as sales and profits--a process known as "price discovery." In essence, traders and investors have habituated to central banks driving private-sector markets higher, not because the assets are generating more value or profits. but simply as a function of centralized money creation and asset purchases.
All of these extremes generate mal-investment, diminishing returns and perverse incentives for ramping up unproductive and risky speculation, leverage and debt. Yet the central banks have trapped themselves in this risky trajectory because they've pushed the accelerator to the floorboard for 9 years. Any extreme held in place for 9 years has long slipped from "temporary" to permanent.
Participants have now habituated fully to central banks extreme stimulus of financial markets, and in a sense they've forgotten how to price assets based on real-world private-sector measures.
How can central banks "retrain" participants while maintaining their extreme policies of stimulus? The only possible answer is: they can't.
PD2: Y hay competencia al yield de la bolsa (cuando se sabe que en épocas maduras, el dividendo se suele recortar, o va a seguir pagando Telefónica un 9% de yield¿?):
Aunque lo que acojona son las pérdidas de capital que se podrían obtener en el futuro por la subida de rentabilidades:
Bonos a 10 años de EEUU:
Y Alemania está en una zona que como lo rompa hacia arriba van a generar muchas pérdidas sus bonos:
PD3: Y las valoraciones de EEUU son:
Y llevaba demasiados días sin que hubiera corregido como dijimos desde estas líneas:
La bolsa ha solido encontrar suelo en un PER de 15 en otras ocasiones:
Y el índice CAPE debe corregir, ¿hasta dónde?
No es raro que el mercado corrija, esta es la quinta vez que lo hace en este mercado alcista que tantos años ha durado:
Aunque ya te digo, los rebotes que se dan, el de ayer, otros que vendrán, deberían superar los altos previos para ser verdaderos. Y los altos previos eran tan altos que no se van a superar en varios años… Lo que quiere decir, que no te animes si quieres invertir en más riesgo. Que estos rebotes, tras un descalabro son más que normales, siempre pasan.
SP500 y bonos a 10 años de EEUU:
Y luego se debe probar el mínimo anterior, el de la semana pasada, y ese sí que es el que debe aguantar para que no haya más nervios. Aunque mi opinión particular, es que veremos un mínimo menor, que el rango de fluctuación se establecerá entre el alto que llegue este rebote y los nuevos mínimos que se alcanzarán en las siguientes semanas…
Faltan tres subidas de tipos adicionales de 0,25 puntos este año. Y los bonos largos se deberían ir al 3,5%, y los Bunds romperán el 1% por arriba…
Según UBS, que acaba de modificar sus previsiones, y mantiene los 3500 del SP500 para el 2025:
PD4: Prepararnos para la Cuaresma que empieza mañana. Recomendaciones del Papa:
Hay que hacer algo, no dejar los días como si no pasara nada… La Cuaresma es un tiempo de CONVERSIÓN, de segundas y terceras conversiones si ya estas convertido…
Y mañana, día de partido importante, como es Miércoles de Ceniza (ayuno y abstinencia), no se deben tomar cañas en el bar viendo el fútbol. Uno se queda en casita y le da palique a la familia, a la mujer, se está más simpático de lo normal…: mejor forma de ayunar es imposible!!!
