Que con el PIB creciendo al 3,2% y con el precio del petróleo y los tipos de interés por los suelos, el Gobierno Rajoy no haya sido capaz de reducir el déficit público por debajo del 4,6% actual es un dato revelador de que la economía española se enfrenta a un problema estructural de enormes proporciones, al que nadie quiere enfrentarse.
Santiago Niño Becerra dice esto:
Uno de los principales problemas que hoy se están dando a lo largo de la geografía es el hecho de estar utilizando palabras y conceptos con el mismo significado que tenían hace quince años cuando hoy esas palabras y esos conceptos tienen significados distintos. Ya hemos hablado antes sobre esto. Así, ‘revitalizar el crecimiento’ no significa hoy lo mismo que lo que significaba en el 2005 porque las circunstancias hoy nada tiene que ver con las de entonces.
Hoy es imposible no ya revitalizar, sino estabilizar nada si no se abordan tres temas que están condicionando toda la realidad y que están definiendo el devenir: 1) una deuda total que nadie puede pagar (y aquí hay que incluir, porque se hallan totalmente interligados con esto, los activos contabilizados en los balances de los bancos por un valor que es infinitamente mayor que el actual de mercado); 2) el exceso de oferta-de-todo que invade todo y que es consecuencia de un exceso delirante de capacidad productiva; y 3) el excedente de población activa que la tecnología ya hace inabsorbible, una tendencia que irá aumentando en el futuro.
Al 2005 es imposible volver porque ni se dan las circunstancias que entonces se dieron ni pueden volver a aplicarse medidas que han llevado a esta crisis. Pretender eso es como en 1931 querer volver a 1926. Como entonces ahora se ha producido un crash, una crisis, y un nuevo modelo está llegando.
Un nuevo modelo está llegando que va a traer muchas limitaciones, bajas expectativas para la mayoría, una involución en innumerables campos, un retroceso en la libertad de acción, porque muchas de las cosas que ahora de tienen y se hacen no van a ser necesarias y porque las cosas que sí van a ser necesarias se van a hacer de modos totalmente diferentes a como ahora se hacen; eso es un cambio de modelo; y es inevitable, si.
Abrazos,
PD1: El EURO nos trajo bondades y muchas maldades:
Some say that the common currency prevents less productive economies from cheating by weakening their national currencies and forces them to become more efficient and competitive. Industrial production data shows that it is not the case. Italy, France, Greece and Portugal have not only stopped producing more; they are producing now less than in 1990! The decay started immediately after the introduction of the euro in 2002!
The OECD industrial production data analysis leads to the following conclusions:
1. since 1990 industrial production (manufacturing and construction included) has been growing in volume at large, even in the most developed countries;
2. the disproportion between industrial output in Germany and two other biggest euroarea economies, Italy and France, occurred already just after the 2001-2002 crisis;
3. Southern Europe’s economies have lost their ability to rebound in industrial production alongside the adoption of the euro.
1. Industrial output can increase
In most of the most developed countries in the world industrial production has grown in volume since 1990, although a great deal of manufacturing capacities have been moved from the West to the emerging markets. Moreover, in countries like the USA, Israel, Switzerland, Austria and Germany the output has surpassed the 2008 pre-crisis levels. However, if we take a look at the euroarea or the Group of Seven (G7), then numbers are still lower than in 2008 but definitely higher than in 1990.
Source: OECD
2. The euroarea has a problem
A closer look at the European industrial production numbers gives a clear signal: something bad has happened after 2000. Before the introduction of euro, production trends ran more or less in the same direction. Meanwhile after the 2001-2002 crisis, French and Italian output did not rebound, while production in Germany expanded enormously and was able to reach the 2008 level quickly after the last crisis. Industry in France and Italy not only has not rebounded but also has started to curb.
3. Southern Europe will not rebound with the euro
Countries with a sovereign currency can easily build up their economies because of one simple mechanism: depreciation. A relatively strong currency (strong in comparison to the economic condition) would not have to be a problem for Italy or Greece if there still were some capacities for more debt. Then internal consumption could prop up industrial production. But Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal have had neither a weak sovereign currency nor the possibility of incurring more debt.
Industry is very important for the economy, as it creates jobs and innovations. The euroarea in the current form is preventing Southern Europe’s industry from developing because of a different type of the economy there. “Roman” economies are not worse than than Germany’s. They just need other tools, so restricting all these various economies in the German fashion will destroy the euro as well as the European unity.
Y si comparamos lo ocurrido desde la crisis en Europa y en EEUU, en materia de INVERSIÓN, alucinamos:
The euro area’s recovery isn’t suffering from a dearth of investment. Quite the contrary, in fact, and the current level of investment is unsustainable without more consumer spending.
This is the conclusion of a study published on Friday by European Central Bank economist Philip Vermeulen. It runs counter to the standard narrative of the region’s upswing: a consumption-driven recovery that relies on the weak euro and on central-bank stimulus, but is sorely lacking the investment needed to put the economy on a long-term path of expansion.
To address the perceived lack of capital spending in the region, the European Commission in 2014 set up the so-called “Juncker Plan.” In Germany alone the investment gap may be around 4 percent of output, or 120 billion euros ($131 billion), according to Marcel Fratzscher, head of the Berlin-based German Institute of Economic Research.
To be fair, a comparison of the post-crisis performance of the U.S. and of the euro area shows that the latter has been lagging behind on investment, says Vermeulen.
Source: European Central Bank
But compared to how investment recovered after previous recessions, the current recovery is stronger on investment than on consumption: consumer spending is up only 4.1 percent from the trough in the first quarter of 2013, while capital spending is 7.7 percent higher.
“This finding is important for policymakers,” says Vermeulen. “The current recovery in investment can only be sustained if aggregate consumption also grows at a sufficiently robust pace in parallel. Policymakers would be misguided to focus on investment exclusively.”
“Instead, policies should aim for a broader recovery of aggregate demand and consumption in particular,” he writes. “The ECB’s current accommodative policy stance is therefore warranted, as it provides support for sustained growth in aggregate demand.”
Hay tanta capacidad productiva y está tan apalancado el sistema que no fluye el crédito para invertir, ni se solicita…
PD2: La conversión consiste en que el amor supere progresivamente al egoísmo en nuestra vida… Y nos podemos convertir cada día, pero hay que querer, hay que pedir al Señor que nos aumente la fe.
