01 diciembre 2016

subirá más el SP500

Wall Street tiene enfrente otro posible tirón hasta los 2400 del SP500. El que haya ganado Trump, y vaya a implementar políticas fiscales generará subidas a corto plazo de los mercados, hasta mitad de año 2017. Luego la segunda parte será otro cantar…, pero lo iremos viendo. Según Goldman Sachs:
Having warned for nearly all of 2016 that the market is getting ahead of itself on the back of median P/E multiples that are higher than 99% of all historical reading, Goldman chief strategist David Kostin stubbornly kept his year end S&P target at 2,100 on valuation concerns.
Today, however, with oil soaring and the S&P at all time highs, he finally threw in the towel as a result of the Trump victory, and in a report Kostin writes that the Trump “Hope” will dominate through 1Q 2017 as S&P 500 climbs by 9% to 2400.  However, at that point, "less-than-expected tax cuts and higher inflation and interest rates will limit both upward EPS revisions and any P/E multiple expansion. S&P 500 will end next year at 2300, reflecting a price gain of 5% and a total return of 7% including dividends."
Here is the summary from Goldman:
+ US equity investors have focused “more on hope than n fear” since Donald Trump’s election. Ironically, many commentators believe his campaign rhetoric focused “more on fear than hope.” In 2017, we expect the stock market will be animated by competing views of whether economic policies and actions of President Trump and a Republican Congress instill hope or fear.
+ “Hope” will dominate through 1Q 2017 as S&P 500 climbs by 9% to 2400. The inauguration occurs on January 20 and our Washington economist expects much legislation will be proposed during the first 100 days. The prospect of lower corporate taxes, repatriation of overseas cash, reduced regulations, and fiscal stimulus has already led investors to expect positive EPS revisions. Instead of our baseline adjusted EPS growth of 5% to $123, growth could accelerate to 11% and reach $130, which would support a P/E multiple above 18x. Top “Hope” investment recommendations: (1) Cyclicals vs. Defensives; (2) Stocks with high US versus foreign sales exposure; and (3) High tax rate companies.
+ “Fear” is likely to pervade during 2H and S&P 500 will end 2017 at 2300, roughly 5% above the current level. Our economists expect inflation will reach the Fed’s 2% target, labor costs will be accelerating at an even faster pace, and policy rates will be 100 bp higher than today. Rising inflation and bond yields typically lead to a falling P/E multiple. Congressional deficit hawks may constrain Mr. Trump’s tax reform plans and the EPS boost investors expect may not materialize. Potential tariffs and uncertainty around other policy positions may raise the equity risk premium and lead to lower stock valuations in 2H. The median stock trades at the 98th percentile of historical valuation based on an array of metrics. Top “Fear” investment recommendations: (1) Low vs. High labor cost companies; and (2) Strong vs. Weak Balance Sheet stocks.
+ Money flow represents a potential upside to our baseline forecast. Equity mutual fund and ETF inflows may benefit as investors lose money owning bonds. After years of active management underperformance and outflows, higher return dispersion will increase the alpha opportunity for investors skilled enough to capture it. Economic policy uncertainty and the later stages of the economic cycle are typically associated with higher stock return dispersion
And the details which, among other things, include a discussion of Alexis de Tocqueville:
1. Earnings. S&P 500 operating EPS will grow by 10% to $116 in 2017 and adjusted EPS will increase by 5% to $123. Investors are excited about a prospective cut in corporate taxes that could boost adjusted EPS to perhaps $130, representing growth of 11%. However, our economists are skeptical that all the anticipated tax cuts will take place given the federal budget deficit constraints. Some tax reform will take place and upside exists to our baseline EPS forecast but it will be less than many investors now expect.
2. Inflation and interest rates. In terms of inflation, core PCE will reach the Fed’s 2% objective by the end of next year. The Fed will hike interest rates next month and three additional times in 2017. Ten-year US Treasury yields will rise to 2.75%.
3. Valuation. S&P 500 currently trades at 19x our forward top-down operating EPS estimate, 18x our forward top-down adjusted EPS and 17x our upside adjusted EPS scenario. The market trades at 17x forward consensus bottom-up adjusted EPS. US equities are highly valued relative to history on most metrics and versus inflation and interest rates. We forecast static valuation during the next 12 months.
4. Path and target. We expect the S&P 500 index will rise to 2400 (+9%) by the end of 1Q as investors embrace the possibility that lower taxes will lead to positive EPS revisions. But less-than-expected tax cuts and higher inflation and interest rates will limit both upward EPS revisions and any P/E multiple expansion. S&P 500 will end next year at 2300, reflecting a price gain of 5% and a total return of 7% including dividends.
5. Buybacks and dividends. Buybacks will rise by 30% as companies repatriate cash held overseas. Dividends will rise by 6% in 2017, above the 4% growth rate currently implied by the dividend swap market.
6. “Hope” vs. “Fear” strategies: “Hope” will dominate during the first part of 2017 as Cyclicals beat Defensives. Firms with high domestic sales will outperform along with companies with high tax rates. “Fear” will dominate later in the year when investors focus on rising inflation and interest rates. Low labor cost and strong balance sheet firms will outperform.
And the charts:
Y sin embargo, los EEUU no están como estuvieron en los 80. Mira que cacho diferencias:
Y la expansión última ha sido más parca:
Aunque los números de desempleo son falsos, como en España, ya que se desapuntaron muchos nuevos al mercado laboral al quitarse las expectativas de colocarse…
Veremos si son capaces de que su industria y la enorme sobrecapacidad no les afecte…
Ya que con la globalización, la industria está en Asia, ésta es nuestra apuesta:
Y solo con estímulos fiscales seremos capaces de seguir creciendo al mismo ritmo:
Aunque la subida no debe ser rectilínea, debe respirar ya que desde las elecciones no lo ha hecho. Si quieres entrar no te precipites ya que habrá que aprovechar algún recorte. Recuerda el acumulado de muchos años que es muy elevado. Abrazos,
PD1: Ayer la OPEP corto su producción y el precio del petróleo voló por encima de los 50 dólares… Malo para la inflación, pero muy bueno para el primer productor de petróleo que es EEUU, que produce más que Arabia Saudí con el fracking… Malo para España que importamos todo.

Why OPEC is trying to cut back on oil production — after doing nothing for two years

For the past two years, as oil prices have been plummeting worldwide, OPEC has mostly stood by and watched, unable to reach a decision on how to react.
The cartel's most important member, Saudi Arabia, famously refused to cut output in 2014when prices first began sliding, because officials were hoping the resulting price crash would drive large swaths of the US fracking industry — with its higher production costs — out of business. The fracking boom in North Dakota and Texas, after all, was a big reason the oil market was oversupplied.
“At the time, that decision to let oil prices drop made sense,” explains Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. At the time, Saudi Arabia didn’t want to cut back on production and lose market share only to see other producers reap the benefits — a “historic error” the country made when prices fell in the early 1980s.
But the world has changed a lot over the past two years. US production has fallen from 9.6 million barrels per day down to 8.6 million barrels per day amid the price crash. Nearly $1 trillion in oil investment worldwide has dried up. Iran returned to the oil market after EU and US sanctions were lifted as part of the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been hurt badly by the price crash. The country has already burned through $160 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves and has been forced to cut social services and salaries to compensate for lower oil revenues, threatening stability in the kingdom.
So the Saudis finally decided to shift their stance. Back in September, OPEC’s 14 members agreed to set a short-term ceiling on their overall output between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day. The hope was that by cutting output, OPEC countries could boost prices and ease the pain on their budgets without immediately triggering a massive surge in new oil investment that would lead to another glut and crash.
PD2: Es la segunda derivada, contemplar…
Hay una gran diferencia entre observar y contemplar. Con frecuencia observo la vida. Lo que sucede delante de mí. Lo analizo, lo disecciono, y decido lo que está bien y lo que no corresponde. Me indigno con lo que no comparto. Quiero cambiarlo. Me emociono con lo que toca mi alma. Quiero alterar la disposición de las cosas. Eliminar algunas, introducir otras nuevas. Tengo una tendencia natural a observar lo que sucede y después actuar. Miro, pero no contemplo.
Me cuesta más estar sencillamente contemplando lo que tengo en frente, admirándome de su belleza, sin hacer nada.
El otro día leía: “Si uno observa quiere saber y obtener información. Uno quiere conseguir algo, por ejemplo conocimiento. En cambio el mero contemplar no pretende conseguir nada. La actitud contemplativa nos conduce a una increíble calma. Todo lo que está presente puede estar presente. No necesitamos cambiar nada. Lo dejamos todo como está. Contemplando se llega al amor por lo contemplado. La contemplación es desinteresada y libre de intereses propios. Así, nunca desearíamos que Dios nos observara, pero somos felices cuando nos contempla bondadosamente. En la vida eterna tampoco observaremos a Dios, sino que lo contemplaremos y por eso lo amaremos”.
Me gustaría aprender a vivir así. Y sacar paz de todo lo que veo. Detenido ante la vida llenarme de la presencia de Dios. Sé que todo me habla de su amor, de su preocupación por mí. Quiero que Dios me contemple.
Quiero contemplar a Dios y saber lo que me está diciendo en medio de mis días. No sólo donde creo que Dios sí me tiene que decir algo.