Una de las mayores gestoras de fondos mundiales, la aseguradora alemana Allianz, habla de prudencia:
Market volatility does exist! After a year of all-time low volatility and booming stock and bond markets, investors received a wake-up call in February when equity indexes around the globe sold off by as much as 10% in a matter of days. This short period of time captured the two largest one-day point drops the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index has ever recorded, as well as the biggest intraday point loss in history when the index plummeted nearly 1,600 points, or 6.2%, in one trading session on February 5.
+Global growth is healthy, with all major economies expanding.
+Global labor markets are strong, with low unemployment rates across major economies.
+The U.S. consumer is more confident.
Conference Board’s Index of Consumer confidence rose to 130.8 in February – the highest reading since 2001, a 17-year high.
+The U.S. consumer is spending.
Consumer spending increased at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2017 – the strongest acceleration in three years.
+The U.S. labor market is strong.
The current unemployment rate of 4.1% is the lowest rates since the year 2000, and is expected to reach multi-decade lows later this year.
+Company earnings are also strong.
And are broadly beating expectations, serving as strong fundamental support to credit markets.
Earnings per share in the S&P 500® Index has grown from $26 in April of 2016 to $36 in March of 2018, while the estimated long term earnings growth is only 11.2%.
+Manufacturing is looking good as well.
The ISM Manufacturing Index, which monitors employment, production, inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries for more than 300 companies, has reached the highest level since 1987 at 60.8.
+Balance sheet reduction – as the Fed’s enormous balance sheet slowly unwinds, additional supply will be available in the market. The increase will put upward pressure on bond rates in an effort to entice investors, which could ultimately have a drag on the equity market.
+Aggressive rate hikes by the Fed to provide monetary policy leeway for the next recession could be self-fulfilling, given structural headwinds to inflation.
+Geopolitical tensions persist, cybercrimes seem commonplace, protectionism is escalating, and nationalism is peaking.
+Where does the next bout of good news come from now that the U.S. tax cut is priced into the market?
+Just like buying, selling can be contagious.
PD1: Prepararse para casarse…