El rebote ha sido de libro.
Ahora vienen curvas de nuevo. Goldman Sachs lo ve más flojo en las próximas
semanas. Es por eso por lo que quiero esperar con las compras, a los muchos que
me habéis dicho que tenías intención de invertir… Ya os avisaré.
Goldman Says Stocks Due for 18% Drop After Rally Driven by
FOMO
In
the equity market, fear of missing out seems to be overshadowing fear of all
that’s wrong with the economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says pessimism will
soon get the upper hand and send the S&P 500 Index down almost 20% in the
next three months.
Fiscal
and monetary support over the past few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic
successfully warded off a financial crisis, but a return to economic normalcy
is still a long ways away and investors have gotten ahead of themselves, the
bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, wrote in a report.
Financial,
economic and political risks darken the outlook for domestic equities, Goldman
warns. The bank cites the lack of flattening in the U.S. infection curve
outside of New York, what promises to be a lengthy re-start process, a 50% hit
to buybacks in 2020 and the risk of higher corporate taxes and de facto
consumption taxes if U.S.-China trade tensions bubble up again.
“A
single catalyst may not spark a pullback, but a number of concerns and risks
exist that we believe, and our client discussions confirm, investors are
downplaying,” Kostin wrote. Goldman says the S&P 500 will probably drop to
2,400 over the next three months before it rebounds to 3,000 by year end.
Kostin
notes that large swaths of the investor community have failed to cash in on the
S&P 500’s 31% surge since its trough on March 23. He points out that most
mutual funds have underperformed since the bear market low, with long/short and
macro hedge funds posting single-digit returns as a group, and investors may
face pressure to chase the rally.
“The
‘fear of missing out’ best describes the thought process,” Kostin said.
But
he warns that it’s a risky move. Even with measures of the breadth of the
recent rally improving in recent days -- potentially signaling more buy-in on
the idea the gains will last -- Goldman Sachs’ sentiment indicator has barely
improved since mid-March.
“Skepticism
abounds regarding the likelihood the rally will continue,” the strategist
writes.
Kostin
is pessimistic on the outlook for corporate profits, citing frozen growth plans
and capital expenditures will drop 27% this year. He points out that the only
encouraging driver for earnings is the swelling federal deficit, which in
effect acts as substantial support for demand.
Caution
on equities may also be warranted in the face of stretched valuations -- to the
extent that anything about 2021’s bottom-line outlook can be discerned.
The
benchmark U.S. stock gauge trades at 19.5 times the buy side’s estimate of next
year’s earnings, Kostin concludes, the highest level since 2002.
Abrazos,
PD1: Ayer circulaba este
impresionante gráfico que lo dice todo. Ante la dicotomía de qué salvar si a
las personas o a la economía, cada país se ha posicionado haciendo una medidas
aparantemente iguales, pero con resultados muy dispares. Es un tema de eficiencia,
o quizás de incapacidad ¿?
Relacionan el número de muertos
por millón de habitantes con las previsiones de crecimiento económico:
Mientras aquí seguimos poniendo
trabas a nuestro gran negocio, el turismo, con 14 días de cuarentena a los que
vengan de fuera… Y la UE, con estupor, ha salido inmediatamente a decirnos que
es una locura, que hay que permitir antes de este verano que el turismo se
reactive, que este verano sea como el de siempre…
Si siguen haciendo tonterías,
no nos van a dar ni un céntimo, o el condicionado va a ser de órdago…
PD2: Otras vez el Papa
Francisco diciendo las cosas muy claras: “La oración es la respiración de la
fe, es como un grito que sale del corazón de quien cree y se encomienda a Dios.
Fe es tener dos manos alzadas y una voz que grita implorando el don de la
salvación.”
