Ojalá sea así. Chorreo de
millones que nos llegarán el 1 de enero próximo, sin que los tengamos que
devolver, sin hombres de negro...
71.000 millones del ala para
los gastos que necesitemos. ¿Serán suficientes? Permíteme que lo dude. Sólo los
ERTE nos cuestan 10.000 millones al mes, que deberán prorrogar ya que los
afectados se irían a la calle de golpe (son casi 4 millones de personas
afectadas por un ERTE…)
Eso es lo que más les ha
gustado, que no haya condicionado, cuando yo creo que sí que va a haberlo y que
no se podrá seguir haciendo con el gasto público como se ha ido haciendo los
últimos años… Demasiada discrecionalidad. Y falta por ver lo que opinen los
Suecos, daneses, austriacos y holandeses… Ya veremos.
A Radical Plan, and $2.6 Trillion, Brings
Europe Back From Abyss
The
European Union has stepped back from the brink. Again.
Unprecedented
in nature and ambitious in scope, the 2.4 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion) in total recovery spending unveiled by the
EU -- anchored by 750 billion euros of joint debt issuance -- has already
started to calm jittery markets and it might just
restore a sense of unity to a bloc under severe strain.
With
the economic pain spread unevenly across the continent, the initiative will
mean a big step toward real fiscal union for the 27 member states and aims to
recast the EU as a force for good rather than an irritating meddler.
Facing
its worst recession in living memory, the EU has crossed a new bridge: It will
harness its collective strength to raise massive amounts of money that won’t
need to be repaid by the recipient countries.
Countries
in the EU still value their sovereignty and so the bloc has always evolved by
dipping toes in the water, often in times of crisis, rather than diving
straight in. But with the creation of the euro and handing over control of
policy areas like competition and trade, bit by bit, decade by decade,
governments have exchanged their powers for the sake of common power.
Leaders
will begin haggling over the details when they convene on June 19 -- perhaps
even in person for the first time in months -- and the process will likely
involve its fair share of bickering as all European projects do. But that won’t
detract from the radical nature of what is now on the table.
“This
is Europe’s moment,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told
the European Parliament in Brussels on Wednesday. “We either all go it alone,
leaving countries, regions and people behind, and accepting a union of haves
and have-nots, or we walk that road together.”
Divided
Continent
As
the coronavirus death toll mounted in March, spreading northward from the
overwhelmed care homes and hospitals of Italy and Spain, the EU had floundered,
with member states set against each other in the scramble for
resources to protect their own. In Italy, the opposition leader Matteo Salvini
spoke openly of pulling his country out of the EU.
Wednesday’s
proposals go some way to ensuring leaders don’t look back into it any time
soon.The pandemic has ensured it’s happening again in a way that was
unthinkable just three months ago when governments still couldn’t agree on the
bloc’s long-term budget -- a far less drastic decision -- after two years of
squabbling.
That
it took Chancellor Angela Merkel, in the twilight of her career, to reverse
years of German intransigence to call for bonds backed by the bloc’s central
budget, reveals the seriousness of the matter. This isn’t just about helping
out friendly fellow governments.
Nationalist
groups are gaining footholds inside the EU borders, and on the outside it faces
an increasingly assertive China and an antagonistic America, so this was about
keeping the whole post-World War II European show on the road.
Franco-German
Plan
The
EU plan follows the general contours of a proposal presented earlier this month
by Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, and would see the commission,
the bloc’s executive arm, issue 750 billion euros of debt with 500 billion to
be disbursed as grants and the rest as loans. The latter may help appease
budget hardliners who objected to joint debt issuance and
presented an alternative blueprint made up entirely of loans.
But
it’s far from a done deal.
Merkel
herself said she expects negotiations and ratification of the plan to occupy
much of the year and Sweden’s EU minister, Hans Dahlgren, told reporters his
country won’t accept the plan as it stands. He was holding a video call with
his counterparts from Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on Wednesday
afternoon to discuss their next move.
Under
the commission proposal, Italy would get 81.8 billion euros in grants, Spain
77.3 billion euros, Greece 22.5 billion euros and France 39 billion euros,
according to an official familiar with the details.
If
endorsed, the plan will ease the pressure on the European Central Bank to act
as the euro area’s main line of defense during a crisis. The central bank’s 750
billion-euro emergency bond-buying program has helped prevent borrowing costs
from spiraling out of control and ECB policy makers are widely expected to
expand the program as soon as next month.
But
the program is testing the limits of what the institution is legally allowed to
do. And the economic cost of the pandemic is still mounting.
The
significance of this week’s proposal lies not just in the amounts of money it
would bring into play, but in the new form of fiscal solidarity it points to in
the face of an existential threat, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
“The
recovery fund sends an important political signal,” Goldman Sachs economists
led by Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note this week. “The Macron-Merkel proposal
shows a deep commitment to Europe and raises the likelihood of further fiscal integration ahead.”
Abrazos,
PD1: Todo está muy caro. El PER
del SP500 alcanzó su nivel de noviembre de 2000:
Esto sigue en marcha gracias a
la nueva liquidez creada de la nada, que alguien tendrá que pagar… Mientras,
los inversores siguen comprando como si no hubiera un mañana, creyendo que el
consumo va a volver en dos días a como estaba antes, algo muy improbable…
PD2: Por fin hay luto, tras
tantos muertos, tras tantos números anónimos:
