Se equivocan tanto los bancos
americanos que no sé yo. Esta vez espero que acierten…
Goldman Strategists See 24% Jump in China Stocks by
Year-End
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
strategists expect the selloff in Chinese stocks since late January to reverse
as the nation’s economic reopening delivers windfall profits for
businesses.
The US investment bank sees
potential for the MSCI China Index to reach 85 points by the end of 2023, an
increase of about 24% over its close last week, according to a note from
strategists including Kinger Lau. The gauge climbed as much as 1.6% in Monday’s
session amid a broad China rebound.
The bullish Goldman forecast
comes as investors have been debating whether the reopening-fueled China stock
rally that began in November has run its course. Escalating geopolitical
tensions and an uncertain outlook for the economic recovery have sparked losses
in February after a three-month surge, though China bulls say a key political
meeting due next month as well as upcoming earnings will bring fresh impetus.
“The principal theme in the stock market will gradually shift from reopening to recovery, with the driver of the potential gains likely rotating from multiple expansion to earnings growth/delivery,” the strategists wrote. “The growth impulse should be heavily tilted towards the consumer economy, where services sector is still operating significantly below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels,” they added.
Chinese equity gauges were the
best performers in Asia on Monday. The CSI 300 Index jumped as much as 2.5%
after three weeks of losses. Construction-related shares were among the biggest
boosts to the onshore benchmark, alongside telecommunication stocks.
A gauge
of China stocks in Hong Kong advanced more than 1.5% after entering a
technical correction last week. Shares of property
developers rallied after the nation moved away from rules restricting land sales by
local governments in its latest effort to revive the housing market.
Meantime, overseas funds returned
to selling China’s bonds in January after a one-month
pause. Foreign holdings of Chinese onshore bonds in the interbank market
including sovereigns, policy bank debt and other fixed-income securities slid
by 106.5 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) to 3.28 trillion yuan, the lowest since
2020, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the China Central
Depository & Clearing Co. and Shanghai Clearing House. That’s also the biggest
outflow since May.
Expectations have been rising
that the government will announce more pro-growth policies as the National
People’s Congress takes place in March. The meeting typically sets the tone for
economic policies and during last year’s gathering, Beijing outlined an
aggressive growth target while laying the ground for more fiscal stimulus.
“Investors have started to look
at those sectors that may benefit from NPC policies, especially infrastructure
& property,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong
Kong) Ltd.
Meanwhile, investors are also
keeping an eye on developments in Sino-American relations after a meeting
between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China’s top diplomat exposed
rifts between the two nations over thorny issues.
Some market watchers expect the
next leg of China’s reopening trade to be a slow grind as investors turn their attention to
fundamentals.
“Investors would likely require
concrete evidence to confirm that fundamentals are indeed improving as the
cycle transitions into growth,” the Goldman strategists wrote. As such,
January-February macro statistics, the Two Sessions, and quarterly earnings
from Chinese firms will be important factors to watch, they added.
Abrazos,
PD1: Me hace mucha gracia lo que
le gusta a la gente este buen hombre. Todo lo que escribe es bueno, aunque le
falta el matiz cristiano…, el saber que solos no podemos con todas las cargas
que nos llegan.
Si añadiera algo de Dios lo bordaría. Y aun así es insuperable…
