La volatilidad va a volver pronto, no lo dudes… Esta fase de calma, de subida sin corregir, posiblemente este concluida. Ahora empezarán los nervios y las dudas. Desde Fidelity dicen:
When markets get choppy, it pays to have a plan for your investments, and to stick to it.
+Keep perspective: Downturns happen frequently and have typically been followed by recoveries.
+Stay disciplined: Trying to time the market has proven challenging—and could cost you.
+Plan for a variety of markets: An investing approach built with your goals and situation in mind may help you cope with short-term volatility.
+Consider help: You may want to look at a professionally managed solution.
No investor likes to hear that the market has experienced a big drop. But volatility is part and parcel of investing.
"Dramatic moves in the market may cause you to question your strategy and worry about your money," says Ann Dowd, CFP, vice president at Fidelity Investments. "A natural reaction to that fear might be to reduce or eliminate any exposure to stocks, thinking it will stem further losses and calm your fears, but that may not make sense in the long run."
Instead of being worried by volatility, be prepared. A well-defined investing plan tailored to your goals and financial situation can help you be ready for the normal ups and downs of the market, and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
"Market volatility should be a reminder for you to review your investments regularly and make sure you consider an investing strategy with exposure to different areas of the markets—U.S. small and large caps, international stocks, investment-grade bonds—to help match the overall risk in your portfolio to your personality and goals," says Dowd.
1. Keep perspective—downturns are normal and normally short lived
Market downturns may be upsetting, but history shows that the U.S. stock market has been able to recover from declines and can still provide investors with positive long-term returns. In fact, over the past 35 years, the market has experienced an average drop of 14% from high to low during each calendar year, but still had a positive annual return more than 80% of the time.
In 2015 and 2016, this general pattern played out. U.S. stocks experienced sharp drops in August 2015, when China devalued its currency; in January 2016, as oil prices dropped; in June of 2016, after the "Brexit" vote; and in the run–up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Still, during the 2-year period, the market was up close to 8% cumulatively.
Volatility is a normal part of investing:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization–weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. S&P and S&P 500 are registered service marks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. The CBOE Volatility Index is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. You cannot invest directly in an index.
2. Be comfortable with your investments
If you are nervous when the market goes down, you may not be in the right investments. Your time horizon, goals, and tolerance for risk are key factors in helping to ensure that you have an investing strategy that works for you.
Even if your time horizon is long enough to warrant an aggressive portfolio, you have to be comfortable with the short-term ups and downs you'll encounter. If watching your balances fluctuate is too nerve-racking for you, think about reevaluating your investment mix to find one that feels right.
But be wary of being too conservative, especially if you have a long time horizon, because strategies that are more conservative may not provide the growth potential you need to achieve your goals. Set realistic expectations too. That way, it may be easier to stick with your long-term investing strategy.
Choose the amount of stocks you are comfortable with:
Data source: Morningstar Inc., 2017 (1926–2016). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. The purpose of the target asset mixes is to show how target asset mixes may be created with different risk and return characteristics to help meet a participant's goals. You should choose your own investments based on your particular objectives and situation. Remember, you may change how your account is invested. Be sure to review your decisions periodically to make sure they are still consistent with your goals. You should also consider any investments you may have outside the plan when making your investment choices. See footnote 1.
3. Do not try to time the market
Attempting to move in and out of the market can be costly. Research studies from independent research firm Morningstar show that the decisions investors make about when to buy and sell funds cause those investors to perform worse than they would have had the investors simply bought and held the same funds.
If you could avoid the bad days and invest during the good ones, it would be great—the problem is, it is impossible to consistently predict when those good and bad days will happen. And if you miss even a few of the best days, it can have a lingering effect on your portfolio.
Trying to time the market can cost you:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The hypothetical example assumes an investment that tracks the returns of the S&P 500 Index and includes dividend reinvestment but does not reflect the impact of taxes, which would lower these figures. There is volatility in the market, and a sale at any point in time could result in a gain or loss. Your own investing experience will differ, including the possibility of loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index, a market capitalization–weighted index of common stocks, is a registered service mark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and has been licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corporation. Source: FMRCo, Asset Allocation Research Team, as of May 31, 2017.
4. Invest regularly, despite volatility
If you invest regularly over months, years, and decades, short-term downturns will not have much of an impact on your ultimate performance. Instead of trying to judge when to buy and sell based on market conditions, if you take a disciplined approach of making investments weekly, monthly, or quarterly, you will avoid the perils of market timing.
If you keep investing through downturns, it won’t guarantee gains or that you will never experience a loss, but when prices do fall you may actually benefit in the long run. When the market drops, the prices of investments fall and your regular contributions allow you to buy a larger number of shares.
In fact, what seemed like some of the worst times to get into the market turned out to be the best times. The best five-year return in the U.S. stock market began in May 1932—in the midst of the Great Depression. The next best 5-year period began in July 1982, amid an economy in the midst of one of the worst recessions in the postwar period, featuring double-digit levels of unemployment and interest rates.
5. Take advantage of opportunities
There may be a few actions that you can take while the markets are down, to help put you in a better position for the long term. For instance, if you have investments you are looking to sell, a downturn may provide the opportunity for tax-loss harvesting—when you sell an investment and realize a loss. That could help your tax planning.
Additionally, if you execute a Roth conversion—moving money from a traditional IRA or 401(k) to a Roth account—a downturn could help. Compared with a conversion when asset prices were higher, a conversion in a downturn may result in a lower tax bill for the same number of shares.
Finally, if the movement of the markets has changed your mix of large-cap, small-cap, foreign, and domestic stocks, or your mix of stocks, bonds, and cash, you may want to rebalance to get back to your plan. That could provide a disciplined approach that helps you take advantage of lower prices.
These strategies are complex, and you may want to consult a professional before making any tax or investment decisions.
Read Viewpoints on Fidelity.com: "The upside of a down market."
6. Consider a hands-off approach
To help ease the pressure of managing investments in a volatile market, you may want to consider an all-in-one fund or professionally managed account for your longer-term goals such as retirement. These different approaches offer a range of different services and different costs but, depending on the specific option, may provide professional asset allocation, investment management, and ongoing tax management.
The bottom line
Rather than focusing on the turbulence, wondering whether you need to do something now or wondering what the market will do tomorrow, it makes more sense to focus on developing and maintaining a sound investing plan. A good plan will help you ride out the peaks and valleys of the market and may help you achieve your financial goals.
PD1: Los padres dedicamos más tiempo a estar con nuestros hijos. ¡Qué bueno! Salvo los franceses…, ay!
Except in France
PARENTS these days spend a lot more time with their offspring, or at least middle-class parents do. One analysis of 11 rich countries estimates that the average mother spent 54 minutes a day caring for children in 1965 but 104 minutes in 2012. Men do less than women, but far more than men in the past: their child-caring time has jumped from 16 minutes a day to 59.
At the same time a gap has opened between working-class and middle-class parents. In 1965 mothers with and without a university education spent about the same amount of time on child care. By 2012 the more educated ones were spending half an hour more per day. The exception is France, where the stereotype of a bourgeois couple sipping wine and ignoring their remarkably well-behaved progeny appears to be accurate.