25 enero 2016

China va a consumir mucho más que otros países

Se lo tienen que comprar todo. Antes no tenían dinero, pero ahora y en el futuro próximo, se van a comprar las mismas chuminadas que hemos comprado los países desarrollados…
China's consumers are expected to spend up to 6.4 trillion U.S. dollars a year by 2025, a 70 percent increase from the 3.7 trillion dollars spent last year, according to a study by think tank Demand Institute.
China's deep pockets are not only growing in scale but also contributing much to the economy, as the country shifts from an export-led economy toward one driven by higher consumption.
The Asian economic giant will keep its place as the second-largest consumer market in the world, after the United States.
Gold accessories are on sale in Caibai, one of best-known gold retailers in Beijing, China, May 2, 2013. (Xinhua/Li Xin)
Overall, consumption growth over the next decade is estimated at an annual rate of 5.2 percent, as wages rise and the Chinese become more aspirational in their spending despite overall economic growth slowdown.
People queue to enter a shopping center in Hong Kong, south China, Nov. 13, 2015. (Xinhua/Ng Wing Kin)
According to the report, even if overall GDP growth slows by as much as one percent going forward, consumption would still grow by 4 percent -- which will keep Chinese economy on track.
By 2025, consumption is estimated to account for nearly 42 percent of total GDP, up from the current 37 percent.
People swarm in a shopping center in Hong Kong, south China, Nov. 13, 2015.(Xinhua/Ng Wing Kin)
The consumption growth will mostly stay where it has long been -- in China's major cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. But smaller cities are quickly catching up.
The kind of people who will drive consumption growth are those who can already afford basic necessities and are finding themselves with some spare cash. They're also more likely to be well-educated and living in urban areas.
PD1: ¿En qué se gasta la pasta la clase media china?

China's middle class isn't what we thought it was

For years, multinational companies have been rubbing their hands together in anticipation of the growth of the Chinese middle class.
Lately, though, that growth has hit a snag as the Chinese economy slows and struggles to segue into a consumer-based model.
A new report from The Demand Institute  a collaboration between Nielsen and the Conference Board — examined the growth of the Chinese middle class by considering how much purchasing power they really have and how much access they have to the products companies want to sell.
The report depicts a far more complicated picture than the one China bulls want to paint. 
"During the years of booming economic growth, it seemed as if consumer businesses in China could not get much wrong," the report said. "But the situation has changed permanently.
"Today, a far higher degree of strategic precision is needed. Overall, we believe the opportunities for geographic expansion are shallower than some business leaders might think."

It's all relative

China is a country with incredible geographic and socioeconomic diversity, so it's hard to nail down exactly what the middle class is and how it will grow. 
The World Bank describes middle class as having the ability to spend between $10 and $50 daily — a significant range, as The Demand Institute points out.
What's more, the World Bank's criteria doesn't consider something very important in China — access. For a middle-class person to consume, they must have access to consumer culture and engage in it. Ecommerce is huge in China but still only generates 10% of retail sales — leaving lots of pent-up demand. 
The Demand Institute
According to the report, growing internet penetration will account for 95% of the growth in China's consumer base.
As it stands now, internet penetration is 48% in the country, meaning "there are hundreds of millions of 'middle class' consumers whom MNCs [multinational corporations] will struggle to serve because they don't have online access."
That means the optimal target group for a multinational company is the "connected spender" — a consumer with both purchasing power and access. They made up just 27% of China's population in 2014, and 44% of total consumer spending, or $1.6 trillion.
These consumers are typically under 49, better educated than average, and live in an urban area with internet access.
But their buying power doesn't compare with that of their US counterparts. Between 2010 and 2014, only 12% of these people reported a household income of more than $3,200 a year, or $85 a day.
Their spending power is expected to rise from 44% of consumer spending to 60% by 2025, with the growth being largely driven by greater internet penetration. That's a significant increase, but it's not earth-shattering.
The report forecasts that China per capita consumption will be $4,400 by 2025, compared with $32,000 in the US today. 
"While this growth is undeniably spectacular, it is coming from a relatively small per capita base and will arguably remain modest compared with most mature markets even by 2025," the report stated.
"Importantly, our projections imply only a very gradual movement toward consumption led-growth in China." 
PD2: El futuro de la economía china pasa por los YUPPIES… Nos van a copiar en todo! Esperemos que dentro de 30 años no nos copien en lo mal que acabó nuestra civilización gastona y consumista…

The Future of China’s Economy: Yuppies

Customers walk through the shoe section inside the Tongzhou Wanda Plaza shopping mall in Beijing, China
China’s economy isn’t dead. It’s just relying heavily on yuppies.
According to a new study from the consultancy the Boston Consulting Group and Alibaba’s Aliresearch, richer, younger and tech-savvier Chinese will be the main drivers of growth in the country’s consumer economy going forward. Affluent consumers, shoppers under the age of 35 and Internet surfers will push China’s consumer market up to $6.5 trillion in sales by 2020, an increase of 54% from 2015, BCG said. Projections stand even if the GDP, now struggling to reach 7% for the year, drops to 5.5%, says BCG.
Many of the world’s companies have relied on China for years to fuel their sales and fear a consumer fallout from the country’s slowing economic growth. At the same time, China is struggling to restructure its export-led economy and create a consumer-led one that looks like the U.S.
Yet it isn’t all gloom and doom, BCG said.
Sales aren’t skyrocketing like they were in peak years of the past, the report said. “But make no mistake: although the pace is slower and the course is bumpier, consumption growth is still tracing a staggering trajectory,” it said.
Young urban professionals, or yuppies, under the age of 35 have 40% more wealth than generations older than them and they feel far more comfortable spending their money, say BCG and Aliresearch. And the people most likely to be seen riding fixed gear bikes, splurging on infant spas or shelling out for meals at the mall also are more likely to have gone to college and travel overseas, the study said.
Upper-middle class households, defined as those making between $24,001 and $46,000 in annual income, will double to 100 million in population by 2020 and account for 30% of all urban households in China, the report said.
E-commerce will also be a major factor to growth and the research projects that it will account for 42% of private consumption by 2020, up from 15% today.
PD3: Y nos podemos enamorar siempre…
Lo que debemos hacer es no acostumbrarnos, es no currarlo, no trabajar el amor…