La alternativa del crudo es el Shale Gas:
Es la revolución…, es la forma de conseguir petróleo de fracturar las capas del suelo con agua y productos químicos a presión. EEUU lidera la técnica y la ha convertido en exportador de productos petrolíferos… Ya sabes lo que marca la línea: o compras petróleo o lo vendes, o lo que es lo mismo, o eres pobre o eres rico…
Deloitte España estima que el fracking crearía 260.000 empleos directos, aumentaría el PIB en 44.000 millones de euros y cubriría toda la demanda energética.
En EEUU, el precio del gas se ha abaratado un 63% al calor del "boom" que ha supuesto el fracking. Y sin embargo en Europa, los precios han crecido un 80%.
EEUU El shale gas era el 1% del suministro total de gas en los 90. Hoy ya es el 30% y en una década se espera que llegue al 45%.
De Canarias sacaremos petróleo que permitirá reducir estas abultadas deudas que tenemos, pero del resto de España sacaremos gas a cholón…, aunque luego dejemos todo contaminado y tengamos que beber agua mineral traída de otros países, ¡tendremos pasta para pagarla!. Mira la técnica que sencilla es:
From Marathon Oil –”Safe, cost-effective refinements in hydraulic fracturing (also known as fracking), horizontal drilling and other innovations now allow for the production of oil and natural gas from tight shale formations that previously were inaccessible. This animated video above introduces you to the proven techniques used to extract resources from these shale formations in a safe, environmentally responsible manner.”
At the end of the video, they explain what happens at the end of a well’s typical 20-40 year life: The land is returned to its original, natural condition before the drilling took place, and there is no evidence remaining that a oil or gas well was ever there.
It’s a great 6-minute animation of the revolutionary drilling technology that is responsible for America’s game-changing, shale-based energy bonanza, which has moved us away from the former mindset of “energy scarcity” that prevailed for generations to a new era of “energy abundance.” It originally appeared on CD back in 2012 and is now making its second appearance.
Related: Here are some interesting facts about a typical Bakken oil well drilled in 2012 at a cost of $9 million to complete, from the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources (via this website):
Expected active well life of 45 years and each well will:
+ Produce about 665,000 barrels of oil
+ Generate over $23 million in net profit
+ Pay nearly $4.3 million in total taxes
+ Pay royalties of $8.2 million to mineral rights owners
+ Pay salaries and wages of $2.1 million
+ Pay operating expenses of $2.3 million
¡¡¡Vamos a ser ricos!!! Abrazos,
PD1: ¿Son todo mentiras lo del SHALE GAS?
One of, if not the biggest contributors to the improving US trade deficit and thus GDP (not to mention labor market in select states) over the past several years, has been the shale revolution taking place on US soil, which has led to unthinkable: the US is now the biggest producer of oil in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. Which is great today, but what about tomorrow?
It is here that problems emerge according to Bloomberg's snapshot of the shale industry. In "We're Sitting on 10 Billion Barrels of Oil! OK, Two", the authors look at the two-tiers of reporting when it comes to deposits that America's fracking corporations allegedly sit on, and find something unpleasant:
Lee Tillman, chief executive officer of Marathon Oil Corp., told investors last month that the company was potentially sitting on the equivalent of 4.3 billion barrels in its U.S. shale acreage. That number was 5.5 times higher than the proved reserves Marathon reported to federal regulators.
Such discrepancies are rife in the U.S. shale industry. Drillers use bigger forecasts to sell the hydraulic fracturing boom to investors and to persuade lawmakers to lift the 39-year-old ban on crude exports. Sixty-two of 73 U.S. shale drillers reported one estimate in mandatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission while citing higher potential figures to the public, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Co.’s estimate was 13 times higher. Goodrich Petroleum Corp.’s was 19 times. For Rice Energy Inc., it was almost 27-fold.
Fracking 101: "Predicting how much oil can be pumped out of shale has been controversial since the boom began about a decade ago. Companies combined horizontal drilling with fracking, or hydraulic fracturing. Fracking involves blasting water, sand and chemicals into deep underground layers of shale rock to free hydrocarbons. Innovators such as Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) said that drilling vast expanses of oil-soaked rock formations is more predictable than the traditional, straight-down method of exploration. Regulators agreed and requirements were loosened starting in 2010."
Furthermore, as tech companies have non-GAAP to hide all the nasty "expense" stuff, energy companies rely on probable and possible.
Energy companies also lobbied the SEC to let them file more speculative estimates, known as probable reserves and possible reserves. Only three companies take that option, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rest report only proved reserves to the SEC and save their other estimates for public presentations, which the SEC doesn’t supervise.
Now the discrepancy between the two estimation methodologies is hardly new: every serious investors in the E&P space has known about the two-tier bookkeeping system for years. The problem, however, is well laid out by John Lee, one of University of Houston petroleum engineering professors for hire: "They’re running a great risk of litigation when they don’t end up producing anything like that. If I were an ambulance-chasing lawyer, I’d get into this."
The reason why no ambulances were chased for the past 6 years, ever since the shale boom truly took off, is that this roughly corresponds to the time when the Fed unleashed its QE on the world, and boosted stock prices to record levels across the board, including those of shale plays. As a result, since fracking investors saw their stocks also rise to record highs, they had no reason for complain, even if the surge in market cap may have had little to do with the actual underlying fundamentals, among which level of reserves, and everything to do with a very different type of liquidity, that emerging from the Fed's printer.
But now things are rapidly changing, the commodity space is getting, pun intended, fracked, E&P companies across the board are sliding, and as of today, the shale space just entered a bear market.
And since investors take to losses with far less enthusiasm and stoic patience than paper profits, artificial as they may have been, they will soon start looking for scapegoats. They will find these were right in front of their eyes. To wit:
Additionally, here is what the abovementioned ambulance chasers will be closely looking at in the coming weeks and months unless the shale stock plunge doesn't reverse quickly.
Marathon’s Tillman, who was speaking at the Barclays Plc CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York on Sept. 3, said there are “risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by” his comments. Many company presentations remind investors that publicly announced estimates are more speculative than the numbers the drillers file with the SEC.
Figures the company executives cite during presentations “are used in the capital allocation process, and are a standard tool the investment community understands and relies on in assessing a company’s performance and value,” said Lisa Singhania, a Marathon spokeswoman. The Houston-based company’s shares have risen 1.6 percent in the last year.
The SEC requires drillers to provide an annual accounting of how much oil and gas their properties will produce, a measurement called proved reserves, and company executives must certify that the reports are accurate.
No such rules apply to appraisals that drillers pitch to the public, sometimes called resource potential. In public presentations, unregulated estimates included wells that would lose money, prospects that have never been drilled, acreage that won’t be tapped for decades and projects whose likelihood of success is less than 10 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The result is a case for U.S. energy self-sufficiency that’s based more on hope than fact.
The SEC is keeping mum, realizing very well that it is suddenly sitting on the next powder keg:
Judy Burns, a spokeswoman for the SEC, declined to comment on what drillers say during investor presentations.
And this is where companies have gotten into hot water:
Many of the companies use their own variation of resource potential, often with little explanation of what the number includes, how long it will take to drill or how much it will cost. The average estimate of resource potential was 6.6 times higher than the proved reserves reported to the SEC, the data compiled by Bloomberg News show.
This is the E&P equivalent of annualized, pro-forma, adjusted EBITDA, a metric that is fully made up on the spot to exclude anything and everything and make the subject look more attractive. In other words, lipstick on a pig.
It is also known as the "Bill Gross effect": everything was great as long as he was making money. And then things all hell broke loose.
More:
Several companies, including Sanchez Energy Corp. (SN), don’t provide a total estimate. Instead, they publish variables such as the number of well locations and the estimated output from each one. Analysts often use these figures to independently compute the total. Even though Sanchez Energy provides the variables for analysts to calculate its resource potential, the Houston-based company doesn’t publish a total estimate. Executives debated whether to include one and decided against it, said Gleeson Van Riet, senior vice president for capital markets and investor relations.
In practical terms, the discrepancies are quite glaring:
The investor presentation by Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based Rice Energy shows 2.7 billion barrels. Rice, which went public in January, reported 100 million barrels to the SEC in March, records show.
At Pioneer Natural Resources, the number they cite to potential investors has increased by 2 billion barrels a year in each of the last five years -- even as the proved reserves it files with the SEC have declined.
The rising number is “a game changer for this company,” said Sheffield, the CEO. “It’s a game changer for this country.”
Curiously, just like in the great Herbalife soa opera, the politicians are involved for one simple reason: they can collect lots of money to give their stamp of approval even if they really have no understanding or idea what they are vouching for.
Pioneer’s numbers aren’t misleading; they’re conservative, Sheffield said. He said he’s shared them with Senators Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, the Democratic chair and Republican ranking member, respectively, of the Senate energy committee.
“Obviously it’s helped us in regard to making headway on convincing people to lift the export ban,” Sheffield said. “We want to convince them that we have this great resource. We don’t want it trapped here in the U.S. That’s for the public, the administration and Congress. So if we’ve got this great resource, why don’t you allow us to export it?”
The message is getting through. While Landrieu said she favors more study, Murkowski said she supports ending the ban.
The one message that is not getting through, however, is that no matter if Obama endorses one reserve estimation metric or another, if and when the P&L crash comes, nobody will be able to stop the onslaught of lawsuits that will immediately hone in on the weakest link, which in this case is clearly the ambiguous and two-tiered public data.
Some are already getting a sense of which way the wind is blowing:
In August, Lee led a workshop in Houston on the best practices of reserves estimation. The audience in the ballroom of the Hotel Derek included engineers for shale drillers such as Marathon, Continental and Rice. Pamela Allen, a senior reserves coordinator for Marathon, raised her hand and told Lee that she was worried that using outsized forecasts in public presentations would run afoul of the SEC and “come back to haunt us.”
Singhania, the Marathon spokeswoman, said she was unable to comment on Allen’s remarks without seeing a transcript.
“If a lot of people get burned -- and I think a lot of people can and will be burned -- by these numbers in the investor presentations, there may be a push by investors to get the SEC to do something about it,” Lee said during the workshop.
Actually, considering the gross incompetence of the SEC, the corrupt, co-opted regulator (for hire) may do something... in just about a decade. In the meantime, the most vibrant US industry may go from boom to bust in a heartbeat, as soon as its is mired in litigation once shareholders realize that the stock gains of the past half-decade will not continue in perpetuity. One look at the shale index chart above and the alarm bells should be going off.
PD2: ¿Quién tiene Shale Gas? España mucho y está permitido su explotación, pero vamos rezagados…, hasta que los políticos se cosquen y metan acelerador…, como cuando los molinos de viento y las granjas de paneles solares… y tal!!!
Ojo con Africa que seguro que tiene Shale gas a mogollón y poco importa contaminar nada:
Y espera a que China empiece a bombear… que tiene un montón.
Y en EEUU este es el volumen de gas esperado:
PD3: Tu ves lucecitas, yo veo gas por todas partes, $$$ $$$
Que contamine es lo de menos… ¡Venga, que somos ricos, a fundir las tarjetas…!
PD4: Me ha gustado lo que escribe este hombre sobre la amistad:
Lo bonita que es la amistad de verdad, aquella que, por mucho que pasen los años dura y perdura. Como decía mi abuela, eso es como montar en bici, nunca se olvida. Y cuánta razón tiene, una buena amistad dura toda una vida.
Un amigo es una persona con la que te sientes cómoda en todo momento, te sientes comprendido y a veces sobran las palabras para entender esos profundos lazos que estrechan una relación entre dos personas. Esa palabra siempre me recuerda a mi abuelo Rafa con sus hermanos, Manolo, Carlos y Eduardo especialmente; pasaban largos ratos sentados alrededor de una mesa, durante los cuales lo único que hacían era mirarse el uno al otro, sin dirigirse la palabra, pero ellos se entendían perfectamente, no hacía falta nada más para percatarse de que ahí existía algo mucho más que un vínculo fraternal. Eran amigos.
Un amigo jamás te va a desear algo que no desee para el mismo, por eso nunca te engañará y te dirá siempre las cosas tal cual las vea sin importarle lo más mínimo si te molestará o no, velará ante todo por tu bien por encima de otra cosa y te hará mil aspavientos para que no tomes ninguna decisión equivocada mientras pueda depender algo de él esa decisión. Tener un buen amigo es como vivir con un guardaespaldas, sabes que salvo hecatombe (causada por uno mismo en el 99% de las ocasiones) estás a buen recaudo, quien tiene un amigo tiene un tesoro.
La amistad se construye, no aparece de la noche a la mañana como el que se encuentra con un billete de 100 euros en medio de un camino, como mi hermano Nandi, después de haber pasado Rafa y yo anteriormente (pendejo). La amistad requiere tiempo y esfuerzo, en muchas ocasiones hacer cosas que no te apetecen demasiado, incluso a veces pasar malos ratos. Vamos, como tener una segunda novia más o menos, pero sabes que merecerá la pena conservar como compañero de viaje en esta vida pues te dará muchas alegrías.
Existe cierta visión equivocada sobre la amistad. A veces pensamos que ser amigo de alguien te obliga en cierto modo a complacer las expectativas de otros, prestarles dinero, permitir que invada tu vida privada o que te roben el tiempo que tu pensabas dedicar a otras cosas o personas. Pensamos a veces que nuestros amigos son aquellos con los que compartimos grupo desde que estamos en el colegio y con los que dormimos la mona después de una borrachera, con los que jugamos al fútbol o los que trabajan en nuestra oficina por el hecho de estar ahí.
Cuantas veces nos empecinamos en ver amistades de donde no las hay. No es lo mismo un amiguete que un amigo; los amigos siempre están ahí, el amiguete NO. El amiguete es esa persona que se entera de que estás pasando una enfermedad porque te ha dejado tu novia y te escribe un whatsapp para darte ánimos; el amigo se preocupa, te coge para que le cuentes tus penas y miserias y te escucha. El amiguete te pide que le invites a una copa un día porque se ha quedado sin pelas y al día siguiente no se acuerda de que te debe; el amigo al día siguiente te invita a dos.
La amistad es aquella que da sin esperar nada a cambio, aquella que supone que si yo invito a una caña se que el haría lo mismo por mí. El amigo es como tener otr@ novi@ pero sin llegar a compartir lecho. No queramos tener mil amigos, tengamos pocos pero buenos.
Sé que tú harías lo mismo por mí, por eso eres mi amigo
