Cada año que pasa, los chinorris tienen más capacidad de compra:
China’s middle class to rise to more than third of population by 2030, research firm says
Consumer spending expected to reach level currently seen in European Union, according to Economist Intelligence Unit
Mainland China’s middle class will account for more than a third of its population by 2030, taking consumer spending to the level now seen in the European Union, an analytics company said.
About 35 per cent of the population will have in excess of US$10,000 of annual disposable income by then, up from about 10 per cent today, according to the report released on Wednesday by The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Private consumption, which includes both goods and services, as well as rent, is expected to grow by 5.5 per cent on average each year, faster than the expansion of the country’s gross domestic product, according to the report.
“We expect that the purchasing power of individual Chinese consumers in 2030 will be roughly akin to that of South Korea today or the US in 2000,” said Dan Wang, China analyst at the company.
Inequalities in wealth were expected to persist, although most of the high-income earners would likely emerge in interior provincial capitals such as Chongqing, Xian and Changsha, it said. Traditionally, the coastal provinces have been the wealthiest.
“Compared to the US and South Korea, China has a much bigger percentage of low-wealth population, mostly because of the large rural population,” Wang said. “China’s inequality in wealth is generally considered lower than that in the US and South Korea, but it is likely to be higher in the future,” she said. “As development deepens, wealth will depend more on capital rather than labour. People owning more capital to start with will be able to accumulate wealth [like housing] a lot faster.”
The report divides mainland consumers into four types, depending on annual disposable income: low income (less than 13,000 yuan, or HK$14, 900), lower-middle income (13,000-67,000 yuan), upper-middle income (67,000-200,000 yuan) and high income (above 200,000 yuan).
Upper middle-income consumers are defined as those able to purchase cars, branded goods and properties in first and second-tier cities, while high-income ones can afford financial services, overseas travel and high-end consumer goods and services.
Many international organisations have released similar reports on China’s growing middle class in recent years. In one of the most recent and frequently cited reports, by Credit Suisse last year, the mainland had a middle class of 109 million, who were defined as adults with wealth of at least US$ 28,000.
Xu Mingqi, a professor at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of World Economy, said although both individuals and the state had seen an increase in wealth, the gains could had been overestimated by overseas observers.
“One tangible example is the surge in outbound tourism and oversea spending. Among such a huge population, some, having achieved a relatively higher income, have showed much more diversified consumption needs than before,” Xu said. “One tangible example is the surge in outbound tourism and overseas spending.
“But let’s not forget the vast underdeveloped areas where income is still quite low,” he said.
At the government and corporate level, growing investment overseas was also attracting the attention of overseas observers, which suggested surging levels of growth, he added.
Abrazos,
PD1: Y a pesar de lo mucho que compran, ahorran un huevo: China's consumer spending was less than 70% of disposable income
PD2: Están cambiando mucho hábitos. Alibaba se ha convertido en mucho mayor que ebay en poco tiempo. Compran de todo…
Here comes the modern Chinese consumer
Cooling economic growth, a depreciating currency, and a gyrating stock market are making political and business leaders concerned that China’s economic dream may be ending. Yet Chinese consumers remain upbeat. In fact, consumer confidence has been surprisingly resilient over the past few years as salaries have continued to rise and unemployment has stayed low.
China’s confident consumers
Why the country’s consumers continue to spend—and what they’re buying.
However, our latest survey of Chinese consumers reveals significant change lurks beneath the surface. Reflecting 10,000 in-person interviews with people aged 18 to 56 across 44 cities, our 2016 China consumer report found that the days of broad-based market growth are coming to an end. Consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend their money, shifting from products to services and from mass to premium segments. They are seeking a more balanced life where health, family, and experiences take priority (Exhibit 1). The popularity of international travel is astounding among Chinese consumers, as is their adoption of trends such as mobile payments. And despite many similarities, consumer behavior can vary significantly among the country’s 22 city clusters.
Exhibit 1
In short, our latest research suggests we are witnessing the modernization of the Chinese consumer, and that will only make the market more challenging for consumer-goods companies. But for those able to get it right, the rewards may be substantial. In this article, we’ll examine the evolving behavior of Chinese consumers through three lenses: how willing they are to spend, what they are buying, and where they are buying.
How willing they are to spend
When asked about their expectations regarding future income, 55 percent of consumers we interviewed were confident their income would increase significantly over the next five years—just two percentage points lower than in 2012. (By comparison, just 32 percent of consumers in the United States and 30 percent in the United Kingdom agreed with the same statement in 2011.)
That’s not to say that Chinese consumers are unaware of the deteriorating condition of the economy. A growing number are seeking to save and invest, and we found differences in consumer confidence widening at a regional level (Exhibit 2). While confidence about income growth during the next five years rose to 70 percent in the Xiamen–Fuzhou city cluster, for example, it decreased to as little as 35 percent in Liao Central.
Exhibit 2
What they are buying
We found that consumers are generally becoming more selective about their spending. They are allocating more of their income to lifestyle services and experiences—over half plan to spend more on leisure and entertainment (the 50 percent surge in box-office receipts in the past year is just one indicator of that trend). At the same time, spending on food and beverages for home consumption is stagnating or even declining.
Chinese consumers are also increasingly trading up from mass products to premium products: we found that 50 percent now seek the best and most expensive offering, a significant increase over previous years (Exhibit 3). It’s no surprise that the growth of premium segments is outpacing that of the mass and value segments, and foreign brands still hold a leadership position in that premium market. What’s more, a rising proportion of Chinese consumers focus on a few brands, and some are becoming loyal to single brands. The number of consumers willing to switch to a brand outside their “short list” dropped sharply. In apparel, for instance, the number of consumers willing to consider a brand they hadn’t before dropped from about 40 percent in 2012 to just below 30 percent in 2015.
Exhibit 3
Becoming part of the closed set of the few brands that consumers consider, or even the one brand that consumers prefer, is increasingly challenging. Fewer consumers are open to new brands, and promotions are becoming less effective at encouraging consumers to consider them.
With a few notable exceptions, such as Huawei’s growing share of the premium-smartphone market, Chinese brands have not gained much traction in many premium segments, such as skincare, cars, sports, and fashion. That contrasts starkly with the mass segment of the market, where local brands are winning market share from foreign incumbents by offering a much stronger product proposition.
Where they are buying
Although China is the world’s largest e-commerce market—generating revenue of about 4 trillion renminbi ($615 billion) last year, around the same as Europe and the United States combined—and consumers increasingly purchase online, physical stores remain important. Consumers engage with brands both online and offline (Exhibit 4), and satisfaction with physical stores remains higher than with online ones. But the gap is narrowing, especially as satisfaction with hypermarkets declines.
Exhibit 4
One trend that is helping maintain interest in physical stores is “retailtainment.” Two-thirds of Chinese consumers say that shopping is the best way to spend time with family, an increase of 21 percent compared with three years ago. Malls—which combine shopping, dining, and entertainment experiences the entire family can enjoy—have benefited most from this trend, at the expense of big-box retail outlets such as department stores and hypermarkets.
Consumers also reinforce family ties through travel: 74 percent of consumers say it helps them to better connect with family, and 45 percent of international trips were taken with family in 2015, compared with 39 percent in 2012. More than 70 million Chinese consumers traveled overseas in 2015, making 1.5 trips on average, and shopping is integral to this experience. Some 80 percent of consumers have made overseas purchases, and nearly 30 percent actually base their choice of a travel destination on shopping opportunities. Among international travelers, around half of their watch and handbag purchases are made overseas, while apparel and cosmetics are the most frequently purchased categories.
Overall, Chinese consumers are adopting new products, services, and retail experiences at rates unseen in developed markets. To take one example, mobile-payment penetration in China went from zero in 2011 to 25 percent of the population in 2015. At the same time, there are still differences in how Chinese consumers in various regions spend. While new highways, high-speed-rail links, and mobile Internet access have strengthened connectivity between neighboring clusters over the past few years, we found that differences across the country’s 22 geographic clusters1have grown even more pronounced. For instance, 35 percent of consumers in the Shanghai city cluster have purchased apparel online in the past six months, compared with just 4 percent of consumers in the Chengdu city cluster.
The Chinese consumer is evolving. Gone are the days of indiscriminate spending on products. The focus is shifting to prioritizing premium products and living a more balanced, healthy, and family-centric life. Understanding and responding to these changes in spending habits will be decisive in determining the companies that win or lose, whether international or domestic competitors. And while scale, speed, and simplicity proved advantageous in the past 15 to 20 years, the changing shape of Chinese consumption seems sure to topple some giants of the past and elevate new champions. Which will your company be?
PD3: Cada vez tiene más cuota del mercado de comercio mundial:
China Outperforms in Global Trade
China bears point to weak trade performance as an indicator that China’s economy is much weaker than advertised, and that a substantial devaluation of the renminbi to boost growth is likely.
But a careful reading of the data suggests this view is not well founded. Yes, China’s exports fell by 1.8 percent in value terms last year, but global trade on the same measure fell by almost 14 percent. China’s share of global exports rose sharply, continuing the long term trend shown in the figure. The rise in share undermines the view that the substantial appreciation of the renminbi in trade weighted terms since mid-2005 has eroded China’s global competitiveness.
Figure 1 China’s Share of Global Exports
Source: World Trade Organization
In value terms China’s imports fell by even more than its exports, by 13.2 percent. To the China bears this suggests weak domestic demand. But this is largely due to the falling global prices of primary products, which comprise a third of China’s imports. China’s imports of several of these commodities actually rose in volume terms last year—crude oil by 9 percent, iron ore by 2 percent, and copper ore by 13 percent. These data suggest China’s domestic growth is stronger than the super bears argue. Moreover, it shows that the common narrative saying China’s slowing growth is largely responsible for falling global commodity prices should be reexamined. The importance of increased global supply is widely recognized as the main cause of the falling price of crude oil. But, rising supply also looks to be a major contributor to the falling prices of iron ore, copper, and perhaps some other commodities.
PD4: Y sin embargo la aportación del sector exterior es negativa:
PD5: Y sus ratios en bolsa son envidiables:
PD6: Siguen ajustando el crecimiento del crédito:
PD6: En móviles se van a hacer con el mercado en pocos años. ¿Te acuerdas de estas empresas? Estos fueron años atrás, los gigantes de la telefonía móvil. Todos realizaron el mismo patrón: se equivocaron de política:
Pues Samsung y Apple se equivocan también con su política de márgenes…
PD7: El apostolado hay que hacerlo con gracia, sin pisar el callo a la gente…, poniéndonos en el lugar del otro, en su falta de fe, en cómo le podemos ayudar, en quererle antes de manipularle, en mostrarnos, en no tocarle su libertad…
