18 junio 2019

se desploman las expectativas de inflación

Con la bajada del precio del crudo y la desaceleración en marcha, la posibilidad de que le inflación llegue al 2% como quiere el BCE es un imposible, lo que deja abierta la puerta a más bajadas de tipos de interés, a ponerlos en más negativos si cabe…
No solo no van a subir los tipos de interés, o a reducir el balance del BCE, que era lo suyo, sino todo lo contrario, van a estimular más el sistema bancario europeo para ver si pueden animar el cotarro… No saben hacer otra cosa…
El gráfico de la expectativas de inflación es chocante:

ECB Officials Say Bank Ready to Act Amid ‘Alarming’ Market Signs

European Central Bank policy makers said the institution will act if needed to support the economy, keeping alive the possibility of interest-rate cuts or quantitative easing returning to the euro area.
Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said officials are monitoring signals from markets, though added they will make their own assessment of the situation before any monetary policy action.
Officials have “more doubts” about euro-zone inflation reaching their goal, Bank of Spain Governor Hernandez de Cos said at a conference in Santander. He also said economic growth will slow this quarter after a strong start to the year, and noted the increased risks from trade tensions and a “hard” Brexit.
Those were among the concerns the forced ECB President Mario Draghi to extend the central bank’s forward guidance this month and pledge to keep rates on hold at least through mid-2020. Hernandez de Cos reiterated that the institution is ready to use other tools, including rate cuts, to boost inflation and growth.
“The ECB is prepared to act if necessary,” he said.

A Look in the ECB’s Stimulus Toolbox

In a Financial Times interview, Coeure said most of the economic concerns relate to manufacturing, and may be temporary, but that signals coming from financial markets are “quite alarming.”
“So far we’re talking about contingency planning,” he said. “But at some point during our next few meetings, we might very well be facing a situation where risks have materialized.”
The remarks come ahead of the ECB’s annual symposium in Sintra, Portugal, which kicks off Monday evening with remarks from Draghi. Policy loosening is also on the horizon for Federal Reserve, which meets this week. Investors are primed for it to indicate a willingness to lower the U.S. benchmark rate in coming months.
“The constellation of prices in the bond market paints a picture of the global economy which is very bleak,” Coeure told the FT. “Central banks should never ignore market signals. They shouldn’t follow them blindly either.”
German 10-year bond yields dropped below zero in early May and are now at -0.243%, close to a record low. A markets measure of euro-area inflation expectations has also plunged.
Coeure said the all options for loosening “come with costs and benefits,” but “none of this would deter us from acting.” If the decision is rate cuts, then the ECB would consider tiering to mitigate side effects.
PD1: El Señor nos enseña a comportarnos como un hijo de Dios. Un primer aspecto es el de la confianza cuando hablo con Él. Pero nos advierte: “No charléis mucho” (Mt 6,7). Y es que los hijos, cuando hablan con sus padres, no lo hacen con razonamientos complicados, ni diciendo muchas palabras, sino que con sencillez piden todo aquello que necesitan.
Siempre tengo la confianza de ser escuchado porque Dios, que es mi Padre, me ama y me escucha. De hecho, orar no es informar a Dios, sino pedirle todo lo que necesito, ya que “vuestro Padre sabe lo que necesitáis antes de pedírselo” (Mt 6,8).
No seré buen cristiano si no hago oración, como no puede ser buen hijo quien no habla habitualmente con sus padres…