Putin reconoce la independencia de dos estados pro rusos, y manda tropas a los mismos. La bolsa rusa se desploma un 10,5%. Y el crudo se dispara…
Ahora falta por ver si Occidente
tiene agallas para imponer sanciones, como ha dicho, o no le interesa tanto…
Era difícil que Putin no se
saliera con la suya…
JPMorgan Sees Oil Soaring To $150, Global Growth Crashing
If War Breaks Out Between Russia And Ukraine
With
Morgan Stanley joining Goldman and calling for $100 oil, and Bank of America's
commodity strategist Francisco Blanch one-upping both, and today laying out the
case for $120 oil...
... on Friday afternoon JPMorgan trumped all of its banking peers with a report that is especially troubling if not so much for the implications from its "theoretical" modeling, but for the fact that Wall Street is now actively assessing what may be the start of World War 3.
In a note from the bank's economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce
Kasman (available to pro subs) which picks up where our
article "Shades Of 2008 As Oil Decouples From Everything" left
off, JPM writes that oil shocks have a long history of driving
cyclical downturns, with US recessions often associated with oil price
spikes...
... most recently of course the surge in oil to all time highs in 2008, which some say sealed the fate of the global financial crisis.
So looking at the latest geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, JPM warns that "these raise the risk of a material spike this quarter." That this comes on the back of already elevated inflation and a global economy that is being buffeted by yet another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, JPMorgan sees the risk of a kinetic war breaking out as adding "to the near-term fragility of what is otherwise a fundamentally strong recovery."
Drilling down, JPM considers a scenario in which an adverse
geopolitical event between Russia and Ukraine materially disrupts the oil
supply. This scenario envisions a sharp 2.3
million b/d contraction in oil output that boosts the oil price quickly to
$150/bbl—a 100% rise from the average price in 4Q21.
Given that this would be solely a negative supply shock, the
impact on output is to reduce global GDP by 1.6% the bank calculates based on
its general equilibrium model. And with global GDP projected to expand at a
robust 4.1%ar in 1H22, the economist due project that "this shock would
damp annualized growth to 0.9% assuming the adjustment takes place over two
quarters. Inflation would also spike
to 7.2%ar, an upward revision of 4%-pts annualized."
It gets worse: in addition to the drag from a sharp contraction in
oil supply our models estimate, there are two other channels through which this
shock could damage global growth.
+The first relates to the
repercussions of a Russian intervention in Ukraine. The US, coordinating with
allies, would likely impose sanctions on Russia. While the possibilities vary
widely in scope, they will likely impact negatively on sentiment and global
financial conditions.
+Second, JPM estimates
incorporate the realized behavior of major central banks over the past two
decades whereby oil price shocks associated with geopolitical turmoil have been
perceived to pose a greater threat to growth than inflation.
Against the backdrop of a year of already elevated inflation and
extremely accommodative policies, JPM warns that central banks may display less
patience than normal—particularly in the EM, where rising global risk aversion
may also place downward pressure on currency values.
To be sure, as with any Wall Street analysis that models war, JPM
is quick to caveat its findings, noting that "it is important to recognize
that the scenario of a jump in the oil price to $150/bbl is premised on a sharp
and substantial shock to the oil supply. History has proven that such large and
adverse shocks do material damage to the macroeconomy. In this regard, the
results reported here should not be a surprise but seen as useful for
quantifying the damage based on a carefully specified general equilibrium model
using generally accepted elasticities."
Boilerplate language aside, what is notable is that for months we
have been wondering what "latest and greatest" crisis will replace
covid as the "green light" that central banks and governments need to
perpetuate not only QE and NIRP, but also the all important helicopter money.
Now we know.
El matiz ahora es que EEUU
produce petróleo y es autosuficiente gracias al frackling y al barato shale
gas:
Otra cosa es Alemania, demasiado dependiente del ruso…
Abrazos,
PD1: Ciertamente, en un orden
lógico, para poder amar, primero se necesita conocer. Pero en la práctica, para
poder conocer, previamente hay que amar…
La experiencia nos demuestra que
es imposible llegar a conocer desde una postura de desafección.
