Esto es lo que va a seguir pasando por Asia:

Urbanización en Asia: cómo beneficiarse de esta idea de inversión

TEMÁTICAS DE INVERSIÓN PARA EL SIGLO XXI

Fidelity explica las claves de una de las que considera como temática de inversión más importante en el siglo XXI.

Dentro de sus ideas de inversión para el siglo XXI,Fidelity Worldwide Investment ha dedicado uno de sus últimos informes a analizar una tendencia de inversión que consideran que tendrá un largo recorrido: el proceso de urbanización en Asia emergente. “La urbanización pasa cada vez más por ser un motor de crecimiento sostenido en el sureste asiático, en un contexto marcado por el auge de las clases medias y el crecimiento de los intercambios y el comercio dentro de esta región”, explican desde la gestora.

Desde Fidelity se apoyan en una serie de estadísticas para afirmar que el crecimiento económico tiene una correlación positiva con las tasas de urbanización. A continuación, aportan una serie de datos relevantes para hacerse con una imagen precisa del conjunto. El primero, que en 2013 el porcentaje de personas que vivía en áreas urbanas de Asia-Pacífico promediaba un 30% en las economías de rentas bajas, mientras que en las economías de rentas altas esta proporción era del 90%. Otro dato: en 2012 vivían en áreas urbanas el 46% de la población de Asia-Pacífico, 1.960 millones de personas, frente al menos de 40% de 2002. El cálculo de Fidelity es que en 2020 esta proporción alcanzará el 50%, lo que en términos absolutos equivale a 500 millones de personas. “Si el resto de condiciones se mantienen igual, esto debería traducirse en un importante crecimiento económico en la región”, sentencian desde la gestora.

La segunda derivada del proceso de urbanización es que en torno a ésta se suelen generar economías de escala que permiten prestar con menores costes servicios esenciales como transporte, salud y educación. Además, contribuye a avivar la demanda de infraestructuras en el continente, especialmente en los países menos desarrollados con infraestructuras inadecuadas (transporte, energía, comunicaciones). Según datos del Banco Asiático de Desarrollo, las necesidades de infraestructuras en la región de ASEAN ascienden a 60.000 millones de dólares al año entre 2010 y 2020, a los que se ha de sumar proyectos nacionales con importantes efectos transfronterizos como aeropuertos, puertos y carreteras hasta las fronteras.

"El gasto en infraestructuras, especialmente en una región relativamente subdesarrollada como ASEAN, probablemente siga ofreciendo oportunidades de crecimiento a las empresas establecidas en ella. Las empresas nacionales, en especial las que tengan vínculos con el sector público, probablemente sean las más beneficiadas", explica Dale Nicholls, gestor del FF Pacific Fund.

Desde la firma norteamericana también destacan que iniciativas a favor de la integración económica regional, como la formalización de la Comunidad Económica de ASEAN (para promover la conectividad física, institucional y entre personas y crear un mercado y una base de producción únicos) en 2015, “también están creando oportunidades para actores con tecnologías punteras, experiencia y conocimientos en materia de construcción de infraestructuras en toda la región”.

El caso de China

El informe de Fidelity analiza en profundidad el caso particular de China, que el mes pasado presentó un ambicioso plan de urbanización que abarca el periodo 2014-2020 y que gira en torno a las personas, ya que pretende que la sociedad china sea la principal beneficiara del proceso de urbanización “y que forma parte de un plan más amplio para llevar al país hacia un crecimiento más sostenible”.

Con esta reforma estructural, China pretende atajar la desigualdad entre la población que vive en las ciudades y la que se ha desplazado desde el medio rural. Actualmente, el 54% de los ciudadanos chinos vive en urbes, pero sólo el 36% está empadronado. “Esto significa que 234 millones de trabajadores inmigrantes y sus familias no tienen acceso a servicios públicos urbanos básicos, a pesar de llevar viviendo mucho tiempo en ciudades. La parte más ambiciosa de este plan es integrar mejor a los antiguos habitantes rurales en la vida urbana”, indican desde Fidelity. Para atajar este problema, el nuevo plan de urbanización introduce dos tasas de urbanización separadas que miden los residentes urbanos permanentes y los hogares empadronados, y prevé que la discrepancia entre ambas tasas se reduzca un 2%, “lo que permitirá a 100 millones de trabajadores inmigrantes y otros residentes urbanos permanentes tener el Hukou (padrón) urbano en 2020”. El objetivo final de este paquete de medidas es que el 60% de la población china viva en ciudades y que el 45% lo haga con todos los derechos en 2020.

La previsión de los expertos de Fidelity es que, “al incidir en la mejora de la calidad de vida de los residentes urbanos mediante un mayor gasto público, el plan probablemente cree una enorme demanda de atención hospitalaria, colegios y viviendas asequibles”. A su vez, esperan que los cambios en el estilo de vida de los trabajadores de origen rural también transforme sus hábitos de consumo.

“Los nuevos riesgos que conlleva la industrialización -contaminación, cambio climático y disminución de los recursos naturales- están provocando simultáneamente un cambio en las normas fundamentales de urbanismo y administración en las ciudades”, continúan los autores del informe. La pretensión del plan de China es reducir el problema de la salud en las ciudades al optimizar el diseño urbano: se quiere reducir la concentración de industrias en las megaurbes (áreas metropolitanas con más de 10 millones de habitantes), al tiempo que se busca mejorar la funcionalidad de las ciudades pequeñas y medianas de una forma más integrada y equilibrada. “La experiencia de China ha alertado al resto de países emergentes de Asia para que consigan una urbanización sostenible y para que los gobiernos den prioridad a la calidad de vida de las personas y la habitabilidad de las ciudades”, concluyen los expertos.

Abrazos,

PD1: India:

Why India Will Soon Outpace China

On the face of it, the title of this article will seem absurd to many. While China’s economic growth has slowed, it’s still running at a brisk 7.4% annual rate. Moreover, the Chinese government seems to be successfully slowing credit in order to rein in a burgeoning debt issue. And it’s implementing a plethora of reforms which should propel the next phase of growth.

Meanwhile, India’s a mess. This fiscal year’s GDP will be below 5% and near decade lows, government and corporate debt is high, the current account deficit has been out of control until recently, inflation reached double-digits late last year, business confidence and investment are at extreme lows and corruption remains rampant.

Dig a little deeper though and the picture doesn’t appear as favourable for China’s economic prospects vis-a-vis India’s. First, it’s highly probable that China’s GDP growth rate is slowing much more than the fraudulent figures put out by the government (I’m not picking on China here as many governments are guilty of this). Second, credit tightening in China will almost certainly take years rather than months given the boom which preceded it. Third, Chinese economic reform will be a drag on growth in the near-term, as can already be evidenced by the crackdown on corruption and its impact on retail consumption.

On the flip side, there are many signs that India’s economy may have bottomed. The current account deficit has significantly eased, the currency has stabilised, inflation has substantially pulled back and corporate earnings are improving. With inflation down, interest rates will soon be cut, which may prove the catalyst for the next investment cycle. The election of a new, economically-friendly government should ensure an acceleration in investment and improved productivity.

There are other positive developments which augur well for India too. For instance, there’s an ongoing boom in the agricultural sector with rising investment and wages. This has resulted in India becoming a net food exporter – an important development given the country’s dependence on agriculture.

For a long time, India’s decentralised, often chaotic economic model has been seen as inferior to China’s authoritarian, top-down model. A reappraisal of that view may soon be in order.

How India became a mess
Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma has noted that India seems to go through cycles of economic crisis and reform every decade or so. In 1991, a balance of payments crisis preceded widespread economic deregulation which is credited for driving the rapid economic growth of the following two decades. In the early 2000s, another crisis resulted in further deregulation and privatisation of key industries.

Here we are about ten years later and there are economic troubles again. GDP growth has slipped below 5%. Inflation peaked in double digits before marginally declining of late. The fiscal and current account deficits have widened sharply.

The government is again largely to blame for the problems. The ruling Congress Party fell into the trap of thinking that economic growth in the high single digits during 2003-2007 was perfectly natural. But it was just the result of reforms from prior governments.

In response to the 2008 crisis, the ruling party initiated a large stimulus package. This worked for a time as the economy recovered faster than most other emerging markets. But combined with large-scale subsidies to bribe rural voters, to the tune of 2.3% of GDP, inflation soon lurched out of control. A lack of reform driven by infighting in the Congress Party and a judicial crackdown on political corruption didn’t help.

Foreign investors and bond rating agencies became increasingly nervous about India. In 2012, the ratings agencies threatened to downgrade the country’s sovereign rating to junk status. Mid last-year, the rupee tanked as foreign investors grew concerned about the current account deficit following hints of QE tapering at that time.

These events were enough to spark the government into action. It’s since liberalised foreign investment in retail and airlines. It’s also started to cut back on energy and agricultural subsidies. More recently, the new central bank governor hiked interest rates to stabilise the currency and tame inflation.

Signs the economy has bottomed
There are a number of signs though that India’s economy may have bottomed and better times lay ahead:

1) The current account deficit (CAD) has eased significantly. The last quarter saw the lowest CAD number in five years due to improved exports and lower gold imports. Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecast India’s CAD will be 2% this fiscal year compared with 5% in 2013.

2) Inflation has pulled back. Due to lower food prices, WPI inflation is at its lowest level in more than four years.

3) The rupee has stabilised. Interest rate hikes and the declining CAD have helped.

4) Corporate earnings seem to be improving. The earnings revision ratio has been rising for the past eight months. Yes, it’s still not great but at least it’s heading in the right direction.

5) Nomura’s composite leading index for India suggests growth is bottoming out.

The key to an economic recovery though is business investment. There are tentative signs that this may be set to turn around:

Business confidence, while low, has improved of late in anticipation of a new government coming into power.
Regulatory constraints for new projects should be eased post election. A Cabinet Committee on Investments has already started to reduce bottlenecks, but this should soon accelerate.
Higher interest rates are forcing Indian companies to reduce leverage by shedding assets. The process of decreasing debt, particularly among infrastructure companies, is necessary for businesses to be in a position to accelerate investment.

Asia Confidential doesn’t foresee a quick turnaround in capital expenditure given high corporate debt levels. But with the prospect of sharply declining interest rates and a new economically-friendly government soon in power, the conditions are in place for a gradual pick-up in business investment.

Modi: friend or foe?
The big question is whether the almost-certain-to-be new leader, Narendra Modi, can deliver on the inflated expectations of him. India’s stock market is certainly answering in the affirmative as it hits new highs (though it’s noteworthy that small caps have significantly lagged).

Modi’s economic track record is undoubtedly impressive. He’s been chief minister of Gujarat, a state with 60 million people, for 12 years. During that time, he’s cut red tape, built substantial infrastructure and contained corruption. Business and investment have thrived. Gujarat GDP has grown 3x under Modi’s leadership. The state now produces 25% of Indian exports yet accounts for just 5% of the nation’s population. Most social indicators in the state have also improved under his watch.

As leader, Modi has promised to replicate his Gujarat policies of improving infrastructure, reducing regulatory hurdles for businesses and ultimately achieve higher growth rates. Granted, he’s been vague on how he’s going to finance some of his promises. Given the fiscal situation, there’s not much room for a substantial boost in spending.

The big blight on Modi’s track record is his hardline Hindu nationalism. In 2002, Muslims in the Gujarati town of Godhra set fire to a train carrying Hindu pilgrims back from a town in Uttar Pradesh. 59 people died on the train. After the attack, Hindu groups called for a protest. This resulted in several days of violence directed at Muslims. 1,000 died and 200,000 were displaced.

Being chief minister at the time, Modi had the option to ban the protest or call in police, but he chose not too. This was condemned at subsequent investigations. And Modi’s refusal to apologise for the incident continues to anger Muslims. The US actually revoked Modi’s visa, suggesting “he was responsible for the performance of state institutions” in the riot.

The facts of this incident are damning but must be weighed against his economic track record and leadership qualities. They must also be weighed against the ineptitude and arrogance of the governing Congress Party over the past decade and for much of the past 50 years.

What matters most though is the opinion of the Indian voter. There’s a chance that Modi could win an outright majority of votes in the general election, which would allow him to rule without coalition partners. The most probable outcome is that he’ll win a near-majority and will be able to build a coalition with a small number of partners.

By voting for Modi, Indians will be clearly saying that they’re tired of the Congress Party’s policies of protectionism, the bribes disguised as subsidies and corruption which goes along with these. They’re demanding policies to promote economic growth, development and jobs. And they want decisive leadership rather than bumbling and infighting.

It may be a stretch to suggest that voters favour market-driven solutions over government-driven ones. But the tide has certainly swing in that direction.

Ultimately, Modi is expected to be given a strong mandate for change and his business-friendly credentials bode well for the country’s economic prospects.

Broader, ignored positives
Besides a bottoming economy and new, potentially improved leadership, there are also several other positive developments which point to a brighter future. India’s much-maligned legal system and decentralised political system have proven strengths of late.

It’s the judiciary which has led the way in fighting corruption. There’s little doubt that corruption remains a huge issue in India. There are some estimates that it’s cost the country US$80 billion over the past decade. According to Transparency International, India ranks 94 of 177 countries in its global corruption perception index, behind the likes of China and Brazil, both hardly paragons of clean administrations.

The courts have been central to curbing some of the rampant corruption. The cancellation of 122 mobile phone licences and jailing of the telecommunications minister in 2012-2013 being but one example.

It’ll be up to Modi to accelerate the crackdown on corruption. It’s crucial that he does as corruption takes valuable money away from productive investments which can boost economic growth and keep inflation in check.

Undoubtedly, political decentralisation has helped the spread of corruption. But the upside from decentralisation is that India’s growth has been shared by rural areas as much as the cities (unlike in China).

In fact, rural areas in India are booming. Wages have risen by close to 15% per annum over the past ten years, compared to city wages which are down more than 2% over the same period.

Decentralisation provides part of the answer for the boom. Urbanisation – people moving from country to city – has also played a role as it’s resulted in a tightening in the rural labor force and contributed to the rise in wages and investment.

A moment in the sun
All of the above isn’t to suggest that India will displace China as Asia’s next economic giant. Far from it. With GDP per capita of just US$1,250, India still has an enormous way to go to catch up with China (GDP capita of US$6,700) and the rest of the developing world (GDP per capita of close to US$10,000).

What Asia Confidential has sought to demonstrate instead is that India has more scope to surprise than China on the economic front. Part of that is because India’s coming from such a low base.

Moreover, this author can foresee a time in the not-too-distant future when India’s economic growth matches, and likely surpasses that of China. The media may then be lauding the superiority of the Indian growth model over China’s!

AC Speed Read

- Despite slowing, China’s economy is still growing at a much faster clip than India’s.

- But that may be about to change with signs that India’s economy has bottomed while China faces serious downside risks.

- With inflation falling in India, interest rates there are set to drop and this, combined with a new, business-friendly government, should provide the impetus for the next business investment cycle.

- For a long time, India’s decentralised economic model has been viewed as inferior to China’s authoritarian, top-down model. A reappraisal of that view may soon be in order.

PD2: PPP

China will become the world's largest economy by the end of the year

UNTIL 1890 China was the world’s largest economy, before America surpassed it. By the end of 2014 China is on track to reclaim its crown. Comparing economic output is tricky: exchange rates get in the way. Simply converting GDP from renminbi to dollars at market rates may not reflect the true cost of living. Bread and beer may be cheaper in one country than another, for example. To account for these differences, economists make adjustments based on a comparable basket of goods and services across the globe, so-called purchasing-power parity (PPP). New data released on April 30th from the International Comparison Programme, a part of the UN, calculated the cost of living in 199 countries in 2011. On this basis, China’s PPP exchange rate is now higher than economists had previously estimated using data from the previous survey in 2005: a whopping 20% higher. So China, which was had been forecast to overtake America in 2019 by the IMF, will be crowned the world's pre-eminent country by the end of this year according to The Economist’s calculations. The American Century ends, and the Pacific Century begins

Hay una confusión en la metodología. Si miramos al PIB nominal, le queda mucho, pero si usamos el PPP (Purchashing Power Parity), China liderará este año al mundo…

La paridad del poder adquisitivo (PPP) es la suma final de cantidades de bienes y servicios producidos en un país, al valor monetario de un país de referencia. Cuando se quiere comparar el producto interno bruto de diferentes países es necesario homogeneizar la información, puesto que cada país mide su producto en su moneda local; para ello se ha de traducir su PIB a una moneda común, a través de los tipos de cambio. La paridad del poder adquisitivo es una de las medidas más adecuadas para comparar la producción de bienes y servicios, con ventajas sobre el producto interno bruto nominal per cápita, puesto que toma en cuenta las variaciones de precios. Este indicador elimina la ilusión monetaria ligada a la variación de los tipos de cambio, de tal manera que una apreciación o depreciación de una moneda no cambiará la paridad del poder adquisitivo de un país, puesto que los habitantes de ese país reciben sus salarios y hacen sus compras en la misma moneda. Lo que sí afectará al PBI PPP es la cantidad de los bienes y servicios producidos en el mismo, debido a variaciones en el tipo de cambio, cuando se trate de importaciones y exportaciones.

China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power

The US is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely anticipated, according to the world’s leading statistical agencies.

The US has been the global leader since overtaking the UK in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019.

The figures, compiled by the International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, are the most authoritative estimates of what money can buy in different countries and are used by most public and private sector organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund. This is the first time they have been updated since 2005.

After extensive research on the prices of goods and services, the ICP concluded that money goes further in poorer countries than it previously thought, prompting it to increase the relative size of emerging market economies.

The estimates of the real cost of living, known as purchasing power parity or PPPs, are recognised as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates, which rarely reflect the true cost of goods and services: on this measure the IMF put US GDP in 2012 at $16.2tn, and China’s at $8.2tn.

In 2005, the ICP thought China’s economy was less than half the size of the US, accounting for only 43 per cent of America’s total. Because of the new methodology – and the fact that China’s economy has grown much more quickly – the research placed China’s GDP at 87 per cent of the US in 2011.

For 2011, the report says: “The US remained the world’s largest economy, but it was closely followed by China when measured using PPPs”.

With the IMF expecting China’s economy to have grown 24 per cent between 2011 and 2014 while the US is expected to expand only 7.6 per cent, China is likely to overtake the US this year.

The figures revolutionise the picture of the world’s economic landscape, boosting the importance of large middle-income countries. India becomes the third-largest economy having previously been in tenth place. The size of its economy almost doubled from 19 per cent of the US in 2005 to 37 per cent in 2011.

Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico make the top 12 in the global table. In contrast, high costs and lower growth push the UK and Japan further behind the US than in the 2005 tables while Germany improved its relative position a little and Italy remained the same.

The findings will intensify arguments about control over global international organisations such as the World Bank and IMF, which are increasingly out of line with the balance of global economic power.

When looking at the actual consumption per head, the report found the new methodology as well as faster growth in poor countries have “greatly reduced” the gap between rich and poor, “suggesting that the world has become more equal”.

The world’s rich countries still account for 50 per cent of global GDP while containing only 17 per cent of the world’s population.

Having compared the actual cost of living in different countries, the report also found that the four most expensive countries to live in are Switzerland, Norway, Bermuda and Australia, with the cheapest being Egypt, Pakistan, Myanmar and Ethiopia.

Y España, ¿por dónde anda?

Y las previsiones es que sigan creciendo en el futuro:

¿recuerdas cuando nos queríamos meter en el G8? Ni a tiros…

Por cierto, crecen no sólo en PIB, sino también sus beneficios empresariales:

Por cierto, China tiene controlada la inflación desde hace unos años. Que un país creciendo por encima del 7% tenga esta inflación es meritorio…

PD3: No vamos a hablar siempre de economía… Aquí te dejo un interesante documental de la comida china. No sólo vas a descubrir que la comida china no es las mierdas que nos dan los restaurantes chinos en España, sino que es mucho más. Además, hacen una presentación de su país y costumbres muy interesante. Espero te guste: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSESlex8sSE

PD4: ¿Qué es ALIBABA? Mucho más que sólo GOOGLE: