Quizás los argumentos que se han ido dando a los motivos de las bajadas de los mercados no sean correctos. Aquí una buena explicación, que comparto:
The stock market movements of the last two weeks are puzzling.
Take the China explanation. A collapse of growth in China would indeed be a world changing event. But there is just no evidence of such a collapse. At most there is suggestive evidence of a mild slowdown, and even that is far from certain. The mechanical effects of such a mild decrease on the US economy should, by all accounts, and all the models we have, be limited. Trade channels are limited (US exports to China represent less than 2 percent of GDP), and so are financial linkages. The main effect of a slowdown in China would be through lower commodity prices, which should help rather than hurt the United States.
Take the oil price explanation. It is even more puzzling. Traditionally, it was taken for granted that a decrease in the price of oil was good news for oil importing countries such as the United States. Consumers, with more money to spend, would increase consumption, and increase output. Energy using firms, with lower cost of production, would increase investment. We learned in the last year that, in the short run, the adverse effect on investment on energy producing firms could come quickly and temporarily slow down the effect, but this surely does not undo the general conclusion. Yet the headlines are now about low oil prices leading to low stock prices. I can think of two potential explanations, neither of them convincing.
First, that very low prices lead to such serious problems for oil producers that this will end up affecting the United States and dominating the scene. I have no doubt that some countries and some companies will indeed be in serious trouble; indeed, some already are. I can also think of ways in which low oil prices also change the geopolitics of the Middle East, with uncertain effects on oil prices. I find it difficult to think that these will dominate the direct real income effects for US consumers.
Second, that the low prices reflect a yet unmeasured decrease in world growth, much larger than is apparent in other hard data, and that the price of oil, like the celebrated canary in the coal mine, is telling us something about the state of the world economy that other data do not. There is no historical evidence that the price of oil plays such a role. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that, indeed, the low price told us that China is really slowing down. (The fact that non-oil commodity prices, for which China plays a bigger role than for oil, have decreased much less than oil does not support this interpretation.) Then, we would be back to the previous conundrum. It is hard to see how this could have such an effect on the US economy and in turn on the US stock market. Another variation on the theme, which has been raised in some columns, is that the low oil price reflects a slowdown in the United States far beyond what the other current data are telling us. There is zero evidence that this is the case.
Maybe we should not believe the market commentaries. Maybe it was neither oil nor China. Maybe what we are seeing is a delayed reaction to the slowdown in the world economy, a slowdown that has now gone on for a few years. While there has been no significant news in the last two weeks, maybe markets are only realizing that growth in emerging markets will be lower for a long time, that growth in advanced economies will be unexciting. Maybe…
I think the explanation is largely elsewhere. I believe that to a large extent, herding is at play. If other investors sell, it must be because they know something you do not know. Thus, you should sell, and you do, and so down go stock prices. Why now? Perhaps because we have entered a period of higher uncertainty. The world economy, at the start of 2016, is a genuinely confusing place. Political uncertainty at home and abroad, geopolitical uncertainty, are both high. The Fed has entered a new regime. The ability of the Chinese government to control its economy is in question. In that environment, in the stock market just as in the Presidential election campaign, it is easier for the bears to win the argument, for stock markets to fall, and, on the political front, for fear mongers to gain popularity.
So how much should we worry? This is where economics stops giving an answer. Or, more specifically, where it gives the dreaded two-handed answer. If it becomes clear within a few days or a few weeks that fundamentals are in fact not so bad, stock prices will recover, just as they did last summer, and this will be seen as a hiccup. If, however, the stock market slump lasts longer or gets worse, it can become self-fulfilling. Low stock prices lasting for long lead to lower consumption, lower demand, and, potentially, to a recession. The ability of the Fed, fresh out of the zero lower bound, to counteract a slowdown in demand remains limited. One has to hope for the first scenario, but worry about the second.
Abrazos,
PD1: Presumir, presuntuoso, tratar de epatar…, que malo es. De nuevo este hombre da en el clavo:
El capitalismo se centra en el tener, el tener se convierte en un dios, y el único pecado de esa «religión» es perder dinero.
Esto se refleja en la vida de la sociedad de una manera continuada. No nos preocupa lo que somos, es más, no sabemos en muchos casos lo que eso significa. Tener es lo importante.
Nos quejamos de que los demás valoren a las personas por lo que tienen, pero en el fondo, estamos todo el día dando signos externos para que nos valoren por lo que tenemos.
Se cambia de coche cada cierto tiempo, o por lo menos lo pintamos de otro color, alguien picará y se creerá que es nuevo.
Presumimos de cargo, de sueldo, de dinero, de vacaciones, de colegio de los niños, de lo que haya que presumir.
Todo lo que sea necesario para demostrar que soy muy importante porque tengo muchas cosas, mucho poder. Lo digo sin recato.
Así, estando en ese positivismo exacerbado, pasamos sin darnos cuenta al utilitarismo en el cual se trata a las cosas como personas y a las personas como cosas.
Es decir, se valora a las personas no sólo por lo que tienen materialmente, sino por lo que tienen físicamente.
Esta valoración de lo físico hace que, en nuestra sociedad, las personas gasten mucho dinero y se sometan a mil sacrificios por cuidarlo.
La perfecta conjunción es mucho dinero y buen físico.
Muchos darían su vida por ello, o al menos, parte de su vida. Encuestas hay que lo dicen.
Además damos por seguro que las personas en esa situación son felices.
¿Nosotros por qué no lo somos? Nos faltan ceros en nuestra cuenta corriente y un poco más de belleza.
Pero llegaremos.
Hay que esforzarse, seguro que terminaremos teniendo muchas cosas y siendo guapos, o sea, felices.
Realmente, cuando pido que me valoren por lo que tengo, lo que hago cada vez más es convertirme en objeto, sobre todo en el terreno de la guapura, de lo físico.
Cada vez que tengo oportunidad, expongo el físico y los demás desean lo que ven.
Digo que el pudor no existe, que no me da vergüenza, lo expongo todo si puedo.
En el fondo estoy pidiendo que se me trate como objeto. Soy un escaparate.
Cuando una persona pone todo su esfuerzo en mejorar lo que tiene física y materialmente, quiere que se le valore por lo que tiene, o sea, como objeto.
Cuando se acerca el verano los esfuerzos se redoblan.
Así seré más deseado…
Cuando las cosas se exponen, se dice que están en el escaparate.
Para eso están los escaparates, para que la gente vea cosas y las desee. Uno cuando ve algo en el escaparate y lo compra, es probable que, antes o después, se canse y lo deje, seguro que, con el tiempo aparecerá algo mejor.
Además, de lo que hay en los escaparates, la gente habla, opina, compara.
Yo quiero ser tratado así. Mi intimidad es lo que se ve.
Sería mucho pedir que te tratasen por lo que eres, a ti lo que te interesa es lo que tienes.
A ese tener dedicas todos tus esfuerzos y con tus obras estás diciendo que quieres que te traten así.
Luego te extrañas de que la gente se acerque a ti para ver que coge. ¡Es lo normal!
¡Sin embargo dices que eres feminista, que no eres machista o que estás a favor de la mujer!
¡No olvides que los cántaros vacíos son los que más suenan!
Mucho esfuerzo por tener, por aparentar pero...te has preguntado ¿tú que eres?
