Desde el punto de vista
económico las consecuencias de la parálisis económica son muy profundas en el
primer y segundo trimestre de este año. Los próximos datos macro que van a ir
saliendo serán muy claros, pero lo sabemos y es lo
que ha ido descontando la bolsa estas semanas. Lo que hay que tratar de intuir
es qué va a pasar en el tercer y cuarto trimestre.
Interesante lo que dice
JPMorgan. Interesante que lo vayas mirando por bloques económicos y que veas
las predicciones sobre China, ya que es la que primero fue afectada, y la que
parece que va saliendo, no sólo en términos de infectados, sino en algunos
datos como el consumo de carbón (en toneladas, no en valor), típicamente
utilizado allí para producir energía:
Estas son las previsiones de JPMorgan, donde confirman lo que todos sabemos: Occidente entra en recesión y solo se salva el sudeste asiático, con China a la cabeza:
Earlier we reported that in a report titled "the lamps are going out all across
the economy", JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael
Feroli slashed
his Q2 US GDP forecast to a staggering -14%, which he
optimistically expects to form the bottom of a V-shaped recovery that then
lifts the US economy by +8% and +4% in Q3 and Q4, respectively (at least until
the next downward revision in his forecast).
We doubt the V-shaped recovery will take
place, in fact if there is any "recovery" it will be L-shaped
especially if medical experts are correct that the pandemic will take 12-18
months to full clear out. That said, the Q2 prediction alone is catastrophic,
and if that slowdown persists the US is facing not only a recession, but
probably a second Great Depression.
However, if JPM's forecast revision for
the US was catastrophic, than its latest global outlook is downright
apocalyptic.
In a separate note by JPM's Bruce Kasman,
has also taken a flamethrower to his global economic forecasts, and the bank's
head of economic policy now anticipates Europe to implode an unprecedented 22%,
the UK to crater by a depressionary and with the US plunging 14%, he sees the
global economy ex China contracting by a whopping -13.7%. In short, JPM now
expects no less than a global depression in the second quarter. This will
follow a Q1 quarter in which China is expected to collapse by -40.8%, which
however will somehow surge by 57.4% in the second quarter.
This is how Kasman lays out his latest
forecast:
Last week we concluded that the COVID-19
shock would produce a global recession as nearly all of the world contracts
over the three months between February and April. This week’s reports, which
show a collapse in China’s activity in February and in survey readings for
March elsewhere in the world, validate this view. There is no longer doubt that
the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter. The key outlook issue now is gauging
the depth and the duration of the 2020 recession.
Here are some more details on the timing
of the upcoming depressionary collapse:
As the virus spreads rapidly across the
globe, we have also been rapidly adjusting our estimates of the impact on 1H20
growth. This week we have again lowered forecasts. For China this quarter and the rest
of the world next quarter, these GDP declines represent the biggest quarterly
contractions recorded over the past 50 years at least. These
contractions will be sufficient to tip 2020 global GDP growth down 1.1% on a
year average basis (0.5% 4Q/4Q). Of particular note (Table 1):
·
China collapses this quarter. We have reduced 1Q20 China GDP growth to
-40%q/q, saar. Economies closely tied to the China supply-chain (such as Korea
and Taiwan) will directionally follow China’s growth path. Forecasts
there have also been lowered.
·
The US and Europe follows next. For the US and Western Europe, the
COVID-19 shock will likely straddle the first two quarters of the year. The
stall in activity in March is likely sufficient to tip both economies into
contraction this quarter but the shock’s impact is expected to be concentrated
next quarter, where both regions are expected to contract at a double-digit
annualized pace. These outcomes are worse than were recorded
during the global financial crisis or the European sovereign crisis.
·
The EM is not immune. While the COVID-19 shock is moving more
slowly through EM countries outside Asia, their vulnerability is increasing
along a number of fronts. In addition to their heightened sensitivity to
falling DM demand for manufactured goods and commodities, they are experiencing
a significant tightening in financial conditions. Oil producers are experiencing
concentrated terms-of-trade losses. Finally, their relatively weak public
health
With these outcomes representing an
unprecedented seizing up in activity across a wide range of sectors, JPM warns
to brace for a "disturbing" set of economic releases in March and
April, arguably
as soon as tomorrow's jobless claims report which according to some, may surge
by over a million newly unemployed workers (!).
Commensurate with the projected sharp decline in GDP, February-March global
industrial production is now expected plunge by more than 10% and US and Euro
area PMIs may test their global financial crisis lows.
Yet while JPM expects the crash in industrial
production to normalize swiftly, it anticipates a much more extended hit to the
unemployment rates, as a result of what it now sees as a much deeper downturn:
for the DM as a whole the bank now forecasts the unemployment rate to rise 1.6%-pts
in the next two quarters. As was the case during 2008-9,
this move reflects a much sharper rise in the US than in the Euro area, even if
smaller in magnitude (Figure 3). Most
immediately, US initial jobless claims should spike above 400,000 in the coming
weeks (Figure 4).
And so with every Wall Street bank having
given up on the first half, and certainly on Q2, the only hope is that the
coming massive depression will also be the shortest on record. That may be an
overly aggressive assumption.
For his part, this is how Kasman does his
best to put an optimistic twist on depressionary data:
As this disturbing news rolls in, it will be natural to extrapolate
that the global recession will extend well into 2H20. However,
our baseline forecast continues to see the dynamics of the March-April dive
laying the foundation for a strong rebound in 2H20 global growth. This outcome,
which projects 9% ar global GDP growth over the final two quarters of the year,
does not ignore the likely lasting damage from the COVID-19 shock.
And yet, in the very next sentence the JPM
economist refutes his own optimistic take: "With the income shock from
lost first-half growth revenue unlikely to be reversed and tighter financial
conditions expected to linger, our forecasts see the level of global GDP growth
ending 2020 2.1%-pts below the baseline path before the outbreak."
More importantly, JPMorgan admits that its
V-shaped recovery is contingent on three catalysts all playing out as expected:
·
The relaxation of social distancing policies before
mid-year. Implicit in the
forecast is the view that the imposition of aggressive containment measures
will cause the number of active infections to peak around 10 weeks after the
confirmation of cases in individual countries. The fading of the virus threat,
alongside a growing recognition that the economic costs of maintaining
aggressive containment policies are very large, should then begin a process of
selective removal of containment measures.
·
The success of targeted, coordinated policies. One of the consequences of the global
financial crisis is that policymakers have experience in dealing with acute
financial sector stress. As such, they are moving rapidly to attempt to
ameliorate the threat to financial market functioning and are working to
cushion the blow to corporates and households most impacted by the shock.
Ensuring that credit will be provided by banks, deferring (or cancelling) tax
payments, and subsidies for short-time work have been key areas of focus.
·
Fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is building. Usually it is monetary easing that
provides the initial line of defense in responding to an economic slowdown.
However, the constraints facing central banks and the flexibility provided to
fiscal authorities in an extremely low interest rate environment suggest that
fiscal easing will be delivered earlier in this episode.
JPMorgan's summary:
"If a normalization in activity from
depressed levels takes hold midyear alongside building policy stimulus, the
depth of the current downturn can be seen as a springboard for a strong
snapback in growth. However,
there is a significant risk that the virus outbreak persists and activity
remains restricted for a longer time. In this environment, risks rise that the
depth of the initial shock unleashes negative forces that magnify the hit to
activity into 2H20.Notably, firms that had been hovering on the
margins of viability pre-crisis may not have sufficient equity to justify even
a subsidized extension of credit and may close. The longer the duration of the
interruption to activity, the deeper into the population of firms likely
closures will occur, and the greater the feedback into consumer incomes and
expectations."
In short, the world is facing an assured
economic depression in Q2, and the only question is whether this depression
persists into the second half and 2021 or reverses in Q3. The answer will
depend on a combination of "price to perfection" events all turning
out just as hoped for. Which, in a world of record political polarization,
ascendant nationalism, and a torn social fabric, is recipe for not only
disappointment but also disaster.
Deutsche Bank tiene esta
previsión macro, donde efectivamente se confirma el año como recesivo salvo
para China, que sale con fuerza en el segundo trimestre ya:
A su vez, Glodman Sachs predice
sobre la evolución de la bolsa de Estados Unidos para este año:
Y concluye que bajará algo más
estos días para rebotar con fuerza de cara a final de año. Abrazos,
PD1: Propuestas de ocio para
estar en casa:
Si haces algo divertido, o ves
una peli buena, o un buen libro, a ver si me la recomiendas, que nos vamos
quedando sin ideas… Seguimos rezando, ayer el Rosario a las 21:00, todos los
días Misa a las 20:00 por Internet, pero se me empiezan a aburrir y a desesperar.
Necesito ideas de planes divertidos que nos haga olvidar este drama…
