Solo con medidas de política
monetaria no se arregla esto. Hace falta mucha política fiscal, que regenere la
economía cuando salgamos de nuestros refugios, o que al menos, permita que las
empresas aguanten esta parálisis…
Unos países pueden hacer mucho
y otros más bien nada. Recuerda cuántos gráficos te he mandado del superávit
presupuestario de ciertos países del norte de Europa, encabezados por Alemania.
Ahora les toca gastar en salvar, en animar el cotarro. Creo que lo harán.
Otros como los mediterráneos no
tenemos ese colchón. No pudimos en la bonanza mejorar las cuentas públicas y
los déficit, el primario, nos comen… Y aún así, y a costa de las futuras
generaciones, será suficiente motivo para que se haga política fiscal ya y no
se deje en manos de la monetaria que está agotada.
Ya hemos visto ayer que el BCE
ha sido incapaz de hacer nada más. Es el turno de los políticos y que empiecen
a tomar decisiones…
How Will the Coronavirus Impact World Economies?
The
coronavirus is dominating the news and sparking panic in markets. We believe
the options for policymakers are clear—but will they implement them?
In
little more than a week, the coronavirus has been transformed from a largely
Asian affair into a clear and present danger for the whole of the global
economy. Sadly, the disease is exacting a growing human toll, and its spread
has sparked record gyrations in global equity markets, pushed bond yields to
new lows and prompted the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) into its first emergency
rate cut since the global financial crisis (GFC). So how much of a threat is
the coronavirus to the global economy and what can policymakers do about it?
Gauging the Threat from Coronavirus
Much
about the coronavirus remains uncertain so we should exercise greater than
normal caution when trying to gauge its impact on the global economy. Not only
do we have limited visibility on the path of the virus itself, but the list of
comparable historical examples to use as a playbook is short.
What
we do know is that the global economy remains fragile, overshadowed as it is by
rising populism and increased geopolitical tension between China and the West.
We also know that many parts of the developed world are approaching the limits
of monetary-policy effectiveness, and that a combination of these factors makes
the global economy unusually vulnerable to negative shocks like the
coronavirus.
The Economic Implications of Containment Measures
Until
a week or so ago, the main channels through which the coronavirus was expected
to affect the global economy were the direct hit to Chinese growth and
supply-chain disruption elsewhere. The former has certainly been impressive,
with February’s purchasing managers’ indices falling even more precipitously
than during the GFC. But with the Chinese authorities expected to respond with
aggressive policy stimulus, the overall damage to the global economy from these
two channels was expected to be manageable, requiring only a modest downgrade
to growth expectations.
Now,
with the virus advancing outside China, this relatively sanguine view of the
world is rapidly being overtaken. The key risk is that governments’ measures to
contain the virus in the large developed economies will catapult the world into
a deep recession. It’s still too early to draw firm conclusions, of course, but
there are ominous signs. In Europe, for example, the focus is starting to shift
to delaying the spread of the virus rather than trying to prevent or contain
it. Indeed, it seems only a matter of time before governments start to impose
onerous restrictions on various forms of economic activity.
Such
is the range of possible outcomes associated with the coronavirus, that it’s
impossible to boil the impact down to a single point forecast. We recently
lowered our global growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%. That’s below consensus,
would make 2020 the weakest year since the GFC, and probably captures most of
the risks associated with the first two coronavirus transmission channels
(i.e., the direct hit to China growth and supply-chain disruption elsewhere).
But
it’s likely to prove too optimistic if widespread outbreaks in Europe and the
US are accompanied by draconian measures to defeat the virus. In that scenario,
global growth is likely to dip, temporarily at least, into negative
territory—and it could be worse if this exposes underlying fragilities
associated with rapid debt accumulation.
What Can Policymakers Do? Monetary and Fiscal Options
It’s
these concerns that triggered this week’s emergency rate cuts from the Fed and
other central banks. But while rate cuts are normally good news for investors,
we need to be realistic about what central banks can and cannot achieve in the
current situation.
We
can have high conviction in central banks’ ability to prevent economic
disruption from morphing into a liquidity crisis (should that risk arise).
That’s especially true given the lessons learned during the GFC—indeed, many of
the crisis-fighting tools created during this period are still operational. In
addition, central banks can try to prevent a supply shock like the coronavirus
from turning into a demand shock by taking steps to boost confidence, ease
financial conditions and prevent equity market weakness spreading to the real
economy.
But
we can have much less confidence in central banks’ ability to address or offset
the economic disruption itself. That would be true at the best of times, but
it’s doubly so today with monetary policy having reached the limits of its
effectiveness in many parts of the developed world (i.e. Europe and Japan).
Moreover, monetary policy is a blunt tool that will do little to address the
cash-flow problems of businesses and households in stricken areas of the
economy.
That’s
where fiscal policy comes in. As governments start to place restrictions on
economic activity, it’s vital that they are accompanied by measures to minimize
the impact on households and businesses. The good news is that there are
increasing signs that policymakers get this. But it’s important that words are
followed by effective action. If not, monetary stimulus may prove futile,
insufficient on its own to prevent a deeper downturn should the coronavirus
crisis continue to escalate.
Darren
Williams is Director—Global Economic Research at AllianceBernstein.
Abrazos,
PD1: Y a los que dudan de que
esto no sea reversible, mira los datos de infectados de Hubei:
En Corea del Sur lo han
conseguido también:
Ahora falta la estabilización
de Italia y España…
Lo malo es que se adopten
medidas innecesarias en esta locura de días que tenemos. Ha habido una gran
tardanza en aplicar medidas de choque, el dejarnos a todos en casa encerrados,
ahora necesitamos ese tiempo para ver el efecto, y no que se apliquen más cosas
que no sirvan ya para nada (aunque los bares y restaurantes se
deberían cerrar):
PD2: Jesús, verdadero Dios y
verdadero Hombre, vive la vida de familia en Nazaret, como todas las familias,
con sus rutinas: crecer, trabajar, aprender, rezar, jugar... Bendita rutina
donde crece y se fortalece, casi sin darse cuenta, el alma de los hombres…
Ahora nosotros tenemos que
hacer lo mismo, encerrados en casa todo el día, todos juntos, trabajando y
estudiando, aprendiendo, rezando… ¡Bendita rutina!
Mis hijos se cansarán en unos
días del aislamiento, pero yo estoy muy contento de tenerles en casa a todos.
