Sale dinero de España, Italia, Grecia, Francia y Portugal y se va a Alemania, Lucemburgo y Finlandia…
Capital flight from one Eurozone country to another, continues to rise. That capital flight is a measure of trust of of a nation's banks.
Capital flight is ongoing in Spain, Italy, Greece, France, and Portugal in that order. The recipient countries are Germany, Luxembourg, Finland, and the Netherlands in that order.
Some charts and tables will help provide a clear picture.
Data for the following charts and tables is from ECB Target Balances, a measure of capital flight. Neither the ECB nor Eurozone officials likes to discuss these numbers for obvious reasons.
The ECB-generated chart below shows Target2 changes over time. However, tracking 20 lines by colors is more than a bit problematic.
Here is the ECB's chart with my annotations in blue. My charts and tables follow.
Target2 Balances Over Time
February Target2 Balances
The above chart shows where the money is coming and going, and by how much.
Cyprus actually has the 5th largest positive balance (thanks to capital controls and forced bail-ins). A few other countries have positive balances, and there are other countries with smaller negatives.
Monthly Changes in Billions of Euros
Country
|
Symbol
|
Jan Target2 Balance
|
Feb Target2 Balance
|
Month-Over-Month Change
|
Spain
|
ES
|
-248.26
|
-263.16
|
-14.9
|
Italy
|
IT
|
-251.26
|
-249.53
|
1.73
|
Greece
|
GR
|
-94.62
|
-95.21
|
-0.59
|
Portugal
|
PT
|
-60.46
|
-66.90
|
-6.44
|
ECB
|
ECB
|
-92.02
|
-98.16
|
-6.14
|
France
|
FR
|
-42.05
|
-68.08
|
-26.03
|
Germany
|
DE
|
587.00
|
605.01
|
18.01
|
Luxembourg
|
LU
|
145.92
|
147.45
|
1.53
|
Netherlands
|
NL
|
60.63
|
58.59
|
-2.04
|
Finland
|
FI
|
45.85
|
72.41
|
26.56
|
Cyprus
|
CY
|
2.55
|
2.32
|
-0.23
|
Aggregate Changes
Feb Sum of Positives and Negatives
|
Jan Sum of Positives and Negatives
|
Month-Over-Month Change
|
-841.04
|
-788.67
|
-52.37
|
+885.78
|
+841.95
|
+43.83
|
Comments
+ The six-country negative sum for February is -€841.04 billion.
+ The five-country positive sum for February is +€885.78 billion.
+ Since the numbers total zero, the rest of the imbalance is spread out over the remaining eurozone countries.
+ In the last month, another +€52.37 billion fled the deficit entities to creditor countries.
Note the ECB itself sports a negative balance to the tune of -€98.16 billion. I don't have an explanation for precisely how this happens.
Those needing a further explanation of Target2 may wish to consider Discussion of Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks "Can You Please Explain Target2?"
The key point is the deficit banks and countries are insolvent. German taxpayers are going to bear the brunt of this mess when it implodes.
El dinero es miedoso y se refugia… ¡Ay de España e Italia! Alemania tiene un severo problema con el resto de los bancos europeos que le deben demasiado… No me extraña el desplome del sector bancario en bolsa… ¿Será más profundo si cabe?
Abrazos,
PD1: Estuvimos viendo en el cine la película Resucitado. Me gustó mucho. Es la visión de los romanos en los días clave, justo después de haber crucificado al Señor. Y lo que más me gustó fue ver la alegría de los cristianos que, lejos de estar temerosos porque les habían matado a Jesús, estaban tan alegres por su resurrección. Es una alegría muy real, conozco a tantos cristianos que tienen esa alegría contagiosa, es una forma muy especial de ver la vida, una pura alegría que trasmiten los que tienen una gran fe, que no la ves en otras personas…
