04 abril 2016

salida de dinero en Europa

Sale dinero de España, Italia, Grecia, Francia y Portugal y se va a Alemania, Lucemburgo y Finlandia…
Capital flight from one Eurozone country to another, continues to rise. That capital flight is a measure of trust of of a nation's banks.
Capital flight is ongoing in Spain, Italy, Greece, France, and Portugal in that order. The recipient countries are Germany, Luxembourg, Finland, and the Netherlands in that order.
Some charts and tables will help provide a clear picture.
Data for the following charts and tables is from ECB Target Balances, a measure of capital flight. Neither the ECB nor Eurozone officials likes to discuss these numbers for obvious reasons.
The ECB-generated chart below shows Target2 changes over time. However, tracking 20 lines by colors is more than a bit problematic.
Here is the ECB's chart with my annotations in blue. My charts and tables follow.
Target2 Balances Over Time
February Target2 Balances
The above chart shows where the money is coming and going, and by how much.
Cyprus actually has the 5th largest positive balance (thanks to capital controls and forced bail-ins). A few other countries have positive balances, and there are other countries with smaller negatives.
Monthly Changes in Billions of Euros
Country
Symbol
Jan Target2 Balance
Feb Target2 Balance
Month-Over-Month Change
Spain
ES
-248.26
-263.16
-14.9
Italy
IT
-251.26
-249.53
1.73
Greece
GR
-94.62
-95.21
-0.59
Portugal
PT
-60.46
-66.90
-6.44
ECB
ECB
-92.02
-98.16
-6.14
France
FR
-42.05
-68.08
-26.03
Germany
DE
587.00
605.01
18.01
Luxembourg
LU
145.92
147.45
1.53
Netherlands
NL
60.63
58.59
-2.04
Finland
FI
45.85
72.41
26.56
Cyprus
CY
2.55
2.32
-0.23
Aggregate Changes
Feb Sum of Positives and Negatives
Jan Sum of Positives and Negatives
Month-Over-Month Change
-841.04
-788.67
-52.37
+885.78
+841.95
+43.83
Comments
+ The six-country negative sum for February is -€841.04 billion.
+ The five-country positive sum for February is +€885.78 billion.
+ Since the numbers total zero, the rest of the imbalance is spread out over the remaining eurozone countries.
+ In the last month, another +€52.37 billion fled the deficit entities to creditor countries.
Note the ECB itself sports a negative balance to the tune of -€98.16 billion. I don't have an explanation for precisely how this happens.
The key point is the deficit banks and countries are insolvent. German taxpayers are going to bear the brunt of this mess when it implodes.
El dinero es miedoso y se refugia… ¡Ay de España e Italia! Alemania tiene un severo problema con el resto de los bancos europeos que le deben demasiado… No me extraña el desplome del sector bancario en bolsa… ¿Será más profundo si cabe?
Abrazos,
PD1: Estuvimos viendo en el cine la película Resucitado. Me gustó mucho. Es la visión de los romanos en los días clave, justo después de haber crucificado al Señor. Y lo que más me gustó fue ver la alegría de los cristianos que, lejos de estar temerosos porque les habían matado a Jesús, estaban tan alegres por su resurrección. Es una alegría muy real, conozco a tantos cristianos que tienen esa alegría contagiosa, es una forma muy especial de ver la vida, una pura alegría que trasmiten los que tienen una gran fe, que no la ves en otras personas…