Ya sabes de mi afición por los futuribles a plazo largo. Cuando pillo a alguien que escribe sobre el futuro lejano, lo guardo y copio para que te hagas una composición de lugar…: mucha clase media compradora, cambios de poder en países, problemas de envejecimiento de la población global (migraciones, urbanización…) y mucha demanda de comida, agua y energía…
The World In 2030
What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.
The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.” This reflects four “megatrends”:
[These trends exist today, but during the next 15-20 years they will deepen and become more intertwined, producing a qualitatively different world. For example, the hundreds of millions of entrants into the middle classes throughout all regions of the world create the possibility of a global “citizenry” with a positive effect on the global economy and world politics. Equally, absent better management and technologies, growing resource constraints could limit further development, causing the world to stall its engines.]
1. Individual Empowerment and the growth of a global middle class;
2. Diffusion of Power from states to informal networks and coalitions;
3. Demographic changes, owing to urbanization, migration, and aging;
4. Increased demand for food, water, and energy.
Each trend is changing the world and “largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of ‘democratization’ at the international and domestic level.” The US will remain “first among equals” in hard and soft power, but “the ‘unipolar moment’ is over.”
It is never safe, however, to project the future just by extrapolating current trends. Surprise is inevitable, so the NIC also identifies what it calls “game-changers,” or outcomes that could drive the major trends off course in surprising ways.
First among such sources of uncertainty is the global economy: will volatility and imbalances lead to collapse, or will greater multipolarity underpin greater resilience? Similarly, will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change, or will they be overwhelmed by it?
Moreover, while interstate conflict has been declining, intrastate conflict driven by youthful populations, identity politics, and scarce resources will continue to plague some regions like the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. And that leads to yet another potentially game-changing issue: whether regional instability remains contained or fuels global insecurity.
Then there is a set of questions concerning the impact of new technologies. Will they exacerbate conflict, or will they be developed and widely accessible in time to solve the problems caused by a growing population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?
The final game-changing issue is America’s future role. In the NIC’s view, the multi-faceted nature of US power suggests that even as China overtakes America economically – perhaps as early as the 2020’s – the US will most likely maintain global leadership alongside other great powers in 2030. “The potential for an overstretched US facing increased demands,” the NIC argues, “is greater than the risk of the US being replaced as the world’s preeminent political leader.”
Is this good or bad for the world? In the NIC’s view, “a collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy,” with “no stable international system and no leading power to replace the US.”
The NIC discussed earlier drafts of its report with intellectuals and officials in 20 countries, and reports that none of the world’s emerging powers has a revisionist view of international order along the lines of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union. But these countries’ relations with the US are ambiguous. They benefit from the US-led world order, but are often irritated by American slights and unilateralism. One attraction of a multipolar world is less US dominance; but the only thing worse than a US-supported international order would be no order at all.
The question of America’s role in helping to produce a more benign world in 2030 has important implications for President Barack Obama as he approaches his second term. The world faces a new set of transnational challenges, including climate change, transnational terrorism, cyber insecurity, and pandemics. All of these issues require cooperation to resolve.
Obama’s 2010 National Security Strategy argues that the US must think of power as positive-sum, not just zero-sum. In other words, there may be times when a more powerful China is good for the US (and for the world). For example, the US should be eager to see China increase its ability to control its world-leading greenhouse-gas emissions.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to the Obama administration’s foreign policy as being based on “smart power,” which combines hard and soft power resources, and she argues that we should not talk about “multipolarity,” but about “multi-partnerships.” Likewise, the NIC report suggests that Americans must learn better how to exercise power with as well as over other states.
To be sure, on issues arising from interstate military relations, understanding how to form alliances and balance power will remain crucial. But the best military arrangements will do little to solve many of the world’s new transnational problems, which jeopardize the security of millions of people at least as much as traditional military threats do. Leadership on such issues will require cooperation, institutions, and the creation of public goods from which all can benefit and none can be excluded.
The NIC report rightly concludes that there is no predetermined answer to what the world will look like in 2030. Whether the future holds benign or malign scenarios depends in part on the policies that we adopt today.
The upper chart below shows US share of real global GDP under four 'alternate' scenarios. The lower chart illustrates patterns in the shift in global economic clout across regions (measured in terms of regions’/countries’ share of global GDP) in 2010 and in our four scenarios for 2030. The four scenarios are:
- Stalled Engines–a scenario in which the US and Europe turn inward and globalization stalls.
- Fusion–a world in which the US and China cooperate, leading to worldwide cooperation on global challenges.
- Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle–a world in which economic inequalities dominate.
- Nonstate World–a scenario in which nonstate actors take the lead in solving global challenges.
Qué, ¿te ha gustado? El informe es bueno… Sirve para tomar algunas ideas… Abrazos,
PD1: Warren Buffet se compra Heinz y paga $72,5 por acción (ayer cotizaba a $60,5). No está mal. Le cuesta 28.000 millones de dólares. En esta vida de inversiones se elige y se compra pensando en una gran rentabilidad de cara al futuro. ¿Te comprarías tu acciones de HEINZ? No a estos precios…, pues este gran gestor sí que se anima y le ganará dinero seguro. ¿Por qué? Porque piensa que se va a expandir vertiginosamente en los mercados emergentes. Piensa que va a vender kétchup a cholón en todas partes. Mucho tomate kétchup…mucho. ¿No se lo copiarán y lo harán igual de rico más barato? Seguro…
PD2: Se pilla antes a un mentiroso que a un cojo. ¿Por qué mienten los políticos? Todo queda escrito, todo se les vuelve como un boomerang. Yo sé la respuesta: nos tienen por tontos. Se piensan que el pueblo español no se le puede decir la verdad ya que, o no lo entiende, o se asusta… de cojones vamos…
Rajoy dijo en 2007 que cobraba de su partido unos 70.000 euros, cuando ahora sabemos que cobró 157.717 euros ¿Por qué mintió a los españoles? Mira lo que dijo en 2007, que no llegaba a final de mes y, sin embargo, tenía acumulado 900.000 euros de patrimonio ¿? ¿Protegía ya a los corruptos entonces?
PD3: SCHAUBLE SAYS THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MAJOR CRISIS IF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES CONTINUE TO FLOOD WORLD WITH MONEY…
PD4: Los faros sirven para saber dónde estamos. Nos marcan la pauta. Mira qué fotos y qué historias…Ay si tuviéramos un buen faro, mejor nos iría…
PD5: Desde fuera nos sacan los colores. Si pinchas en el gráfico, en los colores del partido, te sale la noticia de donde han metido mano estos animalitos. En todas partes…¡Qué ansia por el dinero! Si el dinero no da la felicidad…, ¿pará que querrán robar tanto? Venga a meter mano en el dinero común de todos… Mierda para ellos…
Map Of The Day - Spain's Corruptometer
Confused by the latest scandal in Southern Europe? Unsure of which corruption claim is being denied in the Iberian Peninsula? Fear no longer, as the Corruptometer provides an at-a-glance map of which political party, encouraged by the actions of their leadership, is engaged in bribery, embezzlement, prevarication, falsehoods, scams, tax fraud, and money laundering. There are currently 314 of said politicians involved in 730 cases on the map and while the count is close, it appears Rajoy's Popular Party wins the overall cup for 'Most Corrupt'.
Click image for interactive Google Map
PD6: Percibo más sensibilidad en opinión pública por los inversionistas atrapados en Bankia (bonos preferentes) que por los de Forum Filatélico y Afinsa. Es un poco lo mismo, ¿no? En Bankia se han salvado a los depositantes de una quiebra total. Se han socializado sus pérdidas. Sus gestores se han largado de rositas…, en los otros fiascos, no. Y ¿Rumasa? Cantidad de cosas que sabíamos y desde estas líneas te he ido avisando de que eran un timo…, autorizado por los legisladores y controladores, pero un timo, como el de la estampita, pero oficial… ¡Pobre gente! Están muy enfadados. No me extraña…
PD7: Mi peor error en la vida... fue poner puntos suspensivos donde iba un punto final.
PD8: Ya somos la potencia número 15. ¿Te acuerdas cuando con ZP luchábamos por ser la octava y entrar en el G20…? ¡Qué tiempos! Como hemos desaprovechado nuestras fuerzas y energías… ¡Ay, España de mis amores! ¿Dónde acabaremos dentro de 5 años? Uff, no quiero ni pensarlo.
Si lo comparamos como renta per capita, aparecen los ricos, ricos y nosotros seguimos por ahí, muy abajo…, el 44 mejor del mundo… Desastre total. Nos hemos creído los reyes del Mambo y somos, o seremos, tan pobres como cuando calzábamos alpargatas y no teníamos ni pan que llevarnos a la boca… Centeno y achicoria, sino al tiempo.
PD9: Reputación de empresas: Échate fama y ponte a dormir…
PD10: El indicador de éxito:
No. Se equivocan también. Una persona exitosa es la que ama al prójimo por encima de lo que ama a las cosas. Pretenden enterrar la religión y con ella a Dios. Y no se dan cuenta que el éxito lo logran los que son felices. Y la felicidad se alcanza en esta vida no con dinero, no con cosas o siendo bueno, como podría extraerse de la parte verde, sino de la búsqueda de Dios, de encontrarle y amarle, y de desear la vida eterna, de saber que esta vida tiene una continuidad después…, que no se acaba con la muerte.
