En términos bolsísticos, papel es oferta, dinero es demanda. En viviendas, oficinas y naves industriales hay papel a cholón. Tenemos a España empapelada. ¿Se reactivará la demanda a precios más bajos? No creo, este hombre de abajo dice que tampoco. Es un problema de sobrecapacidad: sobran activos construidos. Quizás mereciera la pena derribarlos y empezar de cero. ¿Qué pasaría si cogiéramos todos los activos que han metido los bancos para sanearse en el “banco malo”, por el morro, y los hacemos desaparecer? Pues que habría que empezar a construir de nuevo, que los precios dejarían de bajar, que el PIB español se reactivaría… ¿No merecería la pena bombardear todos estos pisos/oficinas/naves, asumir la pérdida hoy, que no esperar a que el “banco malo” los vaya vendiendo durante los próximos 15 años? ¿Vamos a salvar algo? ¿No perderemos al final lo mismo? Esto seguro que sí…
"Bajar el precio ya no asegura la venta de una vivienda"
"Bajar el precio ya no asegura la venta de una vivienda. La única alternativa si un propietario quiere vender en los próximos 12-18 meses será aceptar las ofertas, si le llegan". Así de rotundo de muestra Fernando Encinar, jefe de estudios de idealista.com ante los últimos datos conocidos hoy sobre la venta de viviendas publicados por el INE.
En su opinión, "para aquellos vendedores que no reciben ofertas de compra sólo les queda fomentarlas mediante bajadas significativas de precio. El tiempo de vender simplemente bajando un poco el precio ha pasado. A corto y medio plazo las ofertas son las que definirán el precio de las viviendas dejando el precio de los vendedores en meros deseos de venta".
Según los datos del INE, en diciembre se inscribieron en el registro de la propiedad 23.523 operaciones de compraventa, la segunda cifra más baja de 2012 ya que en abril apenas se firmaron 21.551 ventas, la cifra más baja de toda la serie histórica. El siguiente gráfico muestra la caída en picado de las operaciones a partir de 2007, con picos puntuales en los primeros meses de cada ejercicio ya que, de nuevo, reflejarían cómo se produce un impulso de las ventas en la recta final de cada ejercicio.
Además, en 2012 se habrían cerrado 319.058 operaciones de compraventa. La cifra más baja desde que estalló la crisis -en 2011 se firmaron 359.824- y dos veces y medio menos que en pleno boom. En 2007 se vendieron en España más de 775.000 viviendas.
"Si durante 2012, cuando había fuertes incentivos para comprar casa -iva súper reducido para la obra nueva y desgravación fiscal para los compradores de vivienda habitual- no se frenó la caída de compraventa, registrando un descenso de casi 12%, lo que nos espera en 2013 será una situación parecida o de mayor debilidad en lo que al mercado regular se refiera. Es probable que durante este año volvamos a registrar mínimos, excluyendo posibles macro operaciones del banco malo, debido a que la restricción y encarecimiento del crédito se mantendrá y no hay señales de recuperación en el mercado del empleo. ante este escenario", concluye.
Crisis, paro, falta de financiación...
El fuerte aumento del desempleo, la fuerte crisis económica y la falta de financiación han provocado una parálisis de las operaciones. De hecho, desde el estallido de la crisis, 2012 ha sido el cuarto año en el que se han reducido estas operaciones. Los peores años para estas transacciones fueron 2009 y 2008, en los que la compraventa de viviendas se desplomó un 24,9% y un 28,6%, respectivamente. Sólo en 2010 se registraron valores positivos, con un crecimiento de la compraventa de viviendas del 6,8%.
Los datos del INE ponen de manifiesto el nulo impacto que han tenido sobre las decisiones de compra de los ciudadanos el fin de la desgravación por compra de vivienda habitual así como la subida del IVA para la compra de viviendas de primera transmisión a partir del 1 de enero de 2013.
No obstante, habrá que esperar a los datos correspondientes a enero y febrero para comprobar si realmente esos incentivos sirvieron para impulsar las ventas de pisos en la recta final de 2012.
Si quieres alucinar del todo, espeluznante es el informe de JP Morgan sobre el mercado español. Te copio resumen de Centeno:
Para JP Morgan el descuento que se necesita para que el sol vuelva a Benidorm es del 85%, es decir, un piso que valía 100 debe venderse por 15. El banco malo ha comprado a la banca esos mismos pisos por 50 y ahora pretende venderlos a 62,5
Abrazos,
PD1: Veo a todos estáis muy indignados por la situación del país pero no veo a nadie en manifestaciones, salvo los tíos de las preferentes, los de la sanidad y los profesores… ¿A los de más nos irá bien, digo yo? ¿Nadie se queja por lo que les dejamos a nuestros hijos? Pido una manifestación en pro de dejarles un país mejor, una España apañadita, y no ésta que les estamos dejando… Que alguien la convoque porfa-please…, que me apunto.
PD2: Las querellas no se anuncian, se llevan al juzgado. ¡Seguimos esperando a que empapelen a El País! O era todo mentira de nuevo… Sí, se confirma: no dicen más que mentirijillas, para que no se asuste el personal y tal…
PD3: Nos tenemos que preparar a la invasión de chinos. Si crees que ya has visto mucho por estos lares, espera a ver, vamos a ver muchos más, millones… Es el futuro: turismo de los chinos por todas partes. ¿Por qué vendrán a la vieja Europa? Porque ellos no tienen casi nada que enseñar, su cultura es paupérrima (edificios y museos) y los hábitos occidentales les atraerán con furor… Querrán venir a ver qué se hace por aquí. Sus conciudadanos les habrán contado cosas, pero en las próximas dos décadas, les tendremos aquí a millones. Ah, que todavía no sabes chino, pues no sé a qué cojones esperas para aprenderlo…, van a venir en unos años, más de 10 millones de chinos a España de turismo (ahora recibimos 40 mill de alemanes, ingleses, franceses e italianos). Mira lo que dice Jim Rogers: Si tuvieron una invasión de japoneses en EEUU, esperan que haya mucho más chinos en el futuro. Normal, son un cerro de gente…
"For 300 or 400 years, the chinese have not been able to travel for circumstances, decline, war, civil war and then communism, of course. They couldn`t even get passports, much less leave the country. Now they can get passports, now they can take a lot of money out of the country and the government is encouraging citizens to travel.
There are a billion, three hundred million chinese. That is billion with a "b". I can remember when suddenly the japanese started showing up in New York. People said, "Where did all these japanese come from?" There are only 125 million japanese so you can the the staggering potential for chinese tourism. And they are going to see their own country, they are going to see the world."
PD4: El problema de deuda que tenemos los PIIGS es fruto de que los tenedores de la misma, los no residentes, que pensaron en ganar un diferencial frente a la segura Alemania. Ahora no quieren tener deuda periférica más en cartera ya que andan pilladitos… Tienen tantas pérdidas que no se atreven a venderlos. ¿Comprarán más bonos públicos de los países periféricos? ¿Mantendrán los que ya tienen? No es un problema sólo de España. Italia, que acumula una deuda de 2 trillones de euros (2.000.000 millones de euros) tiene colocado en bancos franceses, alemanes y británicos la friolera de 677.000 millones de euros (último dato publicado el viernes del mes de noviembre). ¿Cuánto tiempo tardarán en quitársela toda todita? Lo que dure que vayan llegando los vencimientos y se repatrie la pasta…
PD5: El tamaño de la banca, su excesivo apalancamiento. ¿Sabes cuales son los bancos que tienen más peligro de todos? No te lo imaginas. No, no son los españoles. ¿Tienes alguna idea? Lee esto:
Let’s play a little game.
The game is called “Name That Insolvent Banking System.”
The way you play the game is by trying to guess which the countries whose Bank Assets to GDP ratios are in the below chart. There are only seven countries and I’ll tell you that they’re all western economies in the developed world.
If you win this game, you win the knowledge of knowing which countries’ banking systems are leveraged beyond any credibility. You can then invest accordingly, sheltering your assets from these banking system disasters. You can also ignore the tripe being spewed by the various political leaders and Central Bankers about everything being great in the global financial system.
Ready? Let’s play!
As you can see, the seven counties listed here have banking asset to GDP ratios ranging from 90% to an incredible 400%. Five of the seven have banking asset to GDP ratios above 250%, which is simply extraordinary given the implications of this horrific metric.
Having trouble?
Ok, I’ll give you a hint, one of these countries is the US. We’re often cited as the debt nightmare of the world, which makes all other countries look good in comparison. So which one is the US?
Did you guess number 6?
Wrong!
Ok, here’s another hint, the other six countries are all based in EUROPE.
Give up? Here’s the answer:
As you can see, the US’s banking system is in fact dramatically smaller relative to its GDP than the big players in Europe. As much grief as I and others have given our financial system about being overleveraged and filled with toxic debts, the US is NOTHING compared to Europe, including the allegedly rock solid banking system of Germany.
It’s also worth noting that France, which is considered to one of the essentially sovereign backstops of the EU is in fact one of the worst offenders when it comes to having a totally out of control banking system. Remember this when you hear French politicians talking about the EU crisis being “over.”
So… the next time you hear someone on the TV talking about great things in Europe are, remember the above chart and ask yourself… how can a country be in great shape when it’s banking system is over 200% larger than its economy? Just what are all these “assets.”
And the multi-trillion Euro question: how much of them are in fact garbage?
If you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We're literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from Europe's banks imploding, potentially taking down the financial system with them. Think I'm joking? The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into EU banks right now trying to stop this from happening.
Uff… Y mira que pensamos que los bancos europeos eran seguros. Recuerdas que hace unos días te recordé que ABN AMRO fue nacionalizado y vendido por partes, que a ING tuvieron que seminacionalizarlo con una ayuda pública de 40.000 millones de euros, que AEGON está pachucha, que el cuarto banco tuvo que ser nacionalizado el mes pasado… ¿Qué pasa? No te hablo de Bankia, ni de las mierdas de entidades españolas. ¿Quieres que te hable de los alemanes o franceses? Está la mierdecilla repartida por doquier… Si quieres que te diga la verdad, no hay banco seguro en la UE, ninguno. En EEUU pasa algo parecido. ¿Qué hacer con el dinero? No tenerlo en los bancos. Hay alternativas: inversión colectiva, acciones, lo que sea menos depósitos bancarios. Si aciertan estos tipos y peta todo, no habrá salvación en los bancos, ninguna salvación. Siguen siendo productos de alto riesgo, como la deuda pública, otrora paradigma de seguridad. Nunca mais…
PD6: Ventas minoristas de Enero en UK sale -0,6% cuando se esperaba +0,4%. Mal dato para la £. Menuda semanita la pasada de malos datos macro… Reino Unido jodido: UK 'twin deficits': largest trade deficit in EU in 2012 +4th largest budget deficit in 2011 point to saving deficit
PD7: Desde fuera alucinan: The Pain In Spain Falls Mainly... Everywhere
European GDP and Spain – where it’s going?
Europe Q4 GDP declines 0.6%, and economy contracts 0.9%. No one should be surprised at the latest disappointing European GDP numbers, but they hide important trends – Germany’s Q4 0.6% GDP drop was worse than expected, although the expectations remain for growth later this year. France is going to miss the 3% GDP deficit target because of low growth. For the rest of Europe the numbers were generally worse than expected – and no one credible is talking about significant growth prospects. (Sure, the Euro Elites are telling us they see growth tomorrow.. but tomorrow is always tomorrow..)
The poor GDP numbers are likely to have significant knock-on effects in terms of confidence and the Euro – sure enough European Stocks are lower. France GDP was down 0.3%, Netherlands down 0.2%. And the critical peripheral worries: Italy down 0.9% in Q4. Spain Q4 contracted by 0.7% when its number was released in Jan.
Of course, slowing economies would normally be good news for bonds – rates should fall as the need for economic stimulus rises. True for Germany, but since the rest of Europe moves in step with Germany… until it doesn’t, and renewed doubts about the Euro economies take over!
Are we likely to see another round of Euro Peripheral weakness?
The difference now is NO-ONE really believes the Euro is going to break up. There are some doubts about Italy as the political tensions rise, and the Euro Elites face up to the implications of a Berlusconi resurgence. He’s back, and this time he’s serious... Get over it.
Let’s look at Spain. I’m assured there is nothing to worry about. The country is determined to stick with the programme and stay within the Euro. Sure, there have been some wobbles in terms of agreeing GDP/deficit targets, bailing out the banks, and refusing to be handcuffed to OMT shackles.
Let’s go back to 26th July 2012, the day Draghi promised to “do what is needed to preserve the Euro”... If you bought Spain that July day, you are sitting pretty. 5-year Spain CDS rallied from 642 to 244 in Jan. Spain’s worst of a bad bank bunch, Bankia, has seen its senior CDS tighten from 1575 in July to 709 currently! Spain stocks, IBEX, is up 38%.
What’s not to like..? Think hard about that one.
As we all know, the moment to exit a position is when you first think about it... not when you have to. So if you are bought into the Spain rally, let me ask... what’s the next move? Hold for now, hold to maturity, or sell?
What are the risks for Spain? We have few doubts it will stay in the Euro. If needed, it will get a bailout in whatever form the ECB can make acceptable - unlimited bond purchases and/or direct cash injections if markets close. Anything will be done to avoid an embarrassing default. The risks are more subtle – economic and the long-term consequences of economics.
I spent yesterday’s quieter moments reading through rafts of Spain stuff – particularly some excellent stuff from David Watts at CreditSights. I generally ignore most of the bank analysis – it’s ever so slightly biased and as turgid as over-ripe halibut. No bank is going to write negative Spain comment when there are potential Spain bond mandates to be won.
My current interest in Spain was pricked by Blackrock CEO Larry Fink’s comments to ABC following a visit to Madrid. He reckons “Spain will be a star economy if reforms continue” but it still faces 3-4 years of hard adjustment. Hmm.. so Blackrock has become establishment – agreeing with that the Spanish claims of an: “unprecedented fiscal consolidation effort”. However, there was nothing in the press release to back up any of Fink’s claims with real data or trends.
Data and graphs are the territory of my Macro-Man – Martin Malone - but he’s currently glad-handing in Japan, so let me present my own Spain snapshot:
- The government is extremely unpopular – that’s why the apparently faked attempts to frame them as slush fund recipients had limited effect. Rajoy et al are already marginally less welcome than Ebola fever.
- The government still has many unpopular spending decisions to take. Domestic tension remains high and with still rising unemployment, it could get worse. Which could spawn yet more anti-centralisation from the regions.
- Lowering Spain wages has made Spain more “competitive”, but only in European wage terms.
- Sadly, Spain’s only competitive advantage is lower wages: Spain isn’t a leader in the value-added factors of mature European economies; like cutting edge technology, unmatched engineering prowess, world class design, financial innovation or even sophisticated marketing. There are exceptions; Spain’s top company Zara is successfully selling middle market clothing on a pile ‘em high, sell ‘em cheap basis. Otherwise, Spanish manufacturing is basically making things cheaper than others.
- While European manufacturers may well be looking to move production to Spain because of low wages, it doesn’t help the strong Euro makes the whole country uncompetitive on the world stage, and that European consumers aint consuming very much.
- The improvements in Spain do mean it’s well placed in the short-term if… if… there is a recovery. Long-term prospects look worse with the university educated future generation now working as barista’s in London or anywhere outside Europe, and little being done to invest in a technology driven future.
- Emigration of the best and brightest adds to the demographic time bomb ticking in the Spain pension funds.
- Although the 25% plus Spain unemployment probably underestimates the black economy – it’s a simple fact the whole Spanish private sector is massively overleveraged, especially as family heads are losing their jobs. Falling wages and job losses increase the burden. Banks remain massively vulnerable to rising retail distress.
- All the above without even mentioning fact the economy is burdened by millions of unsellable homes with no one likely to buy. I really don’t understand how SAREB (the Spanish bad bank) is apparently selling property 30% above market.. If I don’t understand it.. my default position is its dodgy.
- Spanish banks may be funding again.. whoopee.. But that’s not a factor of better conditions or outlook – it’s entirely a factor of the scramble for yield rather than better Spain financial fundamentals.
When I ask the question.. what’s not to like about Spain..? Well actually quite a lot.. What are the positives. Well, turning to Mr Fink, the Euro Elites and the IMF, they all praise Spain for making great progress.. In what way? Last year the Spaniards told us they were targeting a 6.3% Deficit GDP. Everyone harrumphed and whined, but had little choice but to accept the number.
Guess what. Spain will miss that number by a significant margin. Now they say 7.4% is likely due to the cost of bank bailouts. But as CreditSights point out, they are probably underestimating the true impact of the 3.5% GDP cost of the bank bailouts. Even the Spain MOF predicts a 8.1% deficit number!
CreditSights suggests a significant Deficit miss will undermine Spain’s borrowing position. They say investors should lighten up on Spain because the likely deficit miss is one sided: if the number was hit, it won’t move market higher, but on a miss there will likely be a sell off – particularly at the long end.
Perhaps... but I’d add Spain’s borrowing position is only sustained by the Draghi promise of OMT support. What if that proves to be just talk and illusion? If Spain is so obviously failing to control its deficit, name a German politician who will be keen to allow them access to emergency OMT funding if there is a reversal? German election later this year.
One Key CreditSights soundbite: “Spain last ran a balanced budget in Q1 2008 when growth was 2%. Now the economy is shrinking 1.7% on an annualised basis.” That’s a massive amount of catch up to be achieved.
The real danger in Spain is long-term. Thus far the government has contained youth unemployment and social unrest. But long-term how will that fare as Spain comes to realise that the only future for it within the Euro is to remain the most competitive production country by dint of lower wages. That’s hardly an attractive option within the United States of Europe – being little more than low-paid arbiters for Corporate Germany.
We are looking at another 3-4 years of economic misery just to get the Spanish economy back into the EU’s 3% deficit/GDP groove. Then we’re looking at on-going relative poverty for Spanish workers within Europe. At some point... something has to give...
PD8: Pauvre France!
Las comparaciones son odiosas…ALEMANIA vs FRANCIA, iban pegados ambos mercados hasta que se desata la crisis… España no es el problema. La UE tiembla como se confirmen estas siniestras sospechas… ¿Habrá dinero suficiente para salvar a España (12% PIB de la UE), Italia (18%) y Francia (25%)…? Ya sé la respuesta, nones…
The Next Push : France
Many investors understandably have not focused on France. The threat of scandal in Spain, the need for yet another round of government support for Italy's third largest bank and the country's upcoming election have commanded attention. What seems to have been a free ride for France may be coming to an end.
Even though the German economy contracted twice as much as the French economy in Q4, we learned this week, the implications for France are greater. Recent data suggests that the German economy has stabilized and may be expanding albeit slowly this quarter. French data continues to disappoint.
This is particularly important because the French government's growth forecast for this year is optimistic, well above the consensus. It was on the basis of the optimism that the Hollande government forecast that its deficit would fall to 3% of GDP, as the EU requires.
Following news that included the nineteenth consecutive monthly increase in French joblessness (Dec) and the larger than expected contraction in Q4, the French government will likely soon cut is 2013 GDP forecasts. The issue is whether it does so before or after the EC updates its forecasts at the end of next week. Currently the EC projects 0.4% growth in France, half of the government's forecast.
Hollande has sold the tax hikes and spending cuts on the basis that they were necessary to reached the 3% deficit target. Senior officials in the Hollande government, including Finance Minister Moscovici, are admitting, just six weeks into the new year, that the 3% target will be overshot. The push back was nearly immediate. Asumussen, the German member of the ECB's board, was crystal clear: France and Germany have a special responsibility to meet the 3% target.
Perhaps if one were sitting in the Elysee Palace, EU Commissioner Rehn's comments earlier this week that some members could be granted more time to bring the deficits in line with EU targets could apply to France. However, it is not clear whether France would be understood to have met the conditionality; namely a program in place to correct public finances.
Hollande is under pressure to take additional remedial action. One area that he is being forced by circumstances to address is the pension system which runs a large deficit. Some reports suggest Hollande is preparing proposals that include decoupling pensions from inflation. Pension reforms undermined Sarkozy's support and Hollande's support has waned.
In terms of policy, outside of the hike of the marginal tax rate of high income earners and the modification of the higher pension age introduced by Sarkozy, Hollande's policies as a Socialist, do not seem that different. The modest liberalization of the labor market seems perfectly consistent with the neo-liberal agenda. Perhaps Hollande has up until now relied more on tax increases than the right would have done, but that path appears to have been nearly exhausted and spending cuts loom.
Investors still appear to regard French bonds as slightly better yielding German bund. Over the past 60-days, the yield of the 2-year notes (of France and Germany) move in the same direct 96% of the time. The 10-year yields move together 93% of the time. French yields are inversely correlated to Italian yields, especially in the 2-year area, where the correlation is -63% (vs -11% in the 10 year sector). French bond yields are also inversely correlated with Spanish bonds at -43%. However, the correlation of 10-year bonds is zero, but trending up form -35% in mid-December.
Investors who share are misgivings about France should continue to monitor these correlations. A break down in the French-German correlation and an increase in the French-periphery correlation would suggest a new phase of euro area tension is at hand
PD9: Entrega…
Me encantaría ser una suave alfombra para que pisaras en blando… La mejor Cuaresma, no hay ninguna penitencia/mortificación mayor. Este es el resumen de cómo amar a los demás, dándonos totalmente para que ellos estén cómodos y sean felices.
